Andy Schooler picks out his best bets for the first-round matches at this week’s ATP Miami Open – read his weekly thoughts exclusively for kwiff.
ATP Miami Open Tennis Tips: March 18th 2026
This isn’t the first time this season that I’ve mentioned Collignon and he continues to make good impressions. After a string of top wins in the second half of 2025, he started this year with a quarter-final appearance in Brisbane. He’s since won the Pau Challenger, while last week he was in the last eight of the Cap Capa second-tier event.
ATP Miami Open: Raphael Collignon v Grigor Dimitrov
Indian Wells had brought an early defeat, although there was nothing disgraceful about losing to Joao Fonseca, who went on give eventual champion Jannik Sinner arguably his toughest test of the tournament. Here, the Belgian faced a player with a strong Miami record – Dimitrov made the final in 2024 and the semis last year – but one also woefully out of form. He’s also now going to be feeling the pressure of having a chunk of ranking points to defend.
The Bulgarian simply hasn’t been able to rediscover anything like his best tennis since his heartbreaking Wimbledon injury, sustained when he was on the cusp of taking down Sinner. He’s gone 2-5 in 2026, a run which includes a loss to Collignon in Brisbane. Dimitrov failed to break serve in that match, and that’s been something of a common theme as it’s now happened in four of those seven contests. Maybe a return to Miami will spark the veteran into life but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it. Quite the opposite, in fact…
ATP Miami Open: Ethan Quinn v Hubert Hurkacz
Like Collignon has already beaten Dimitrov this season, so too has Quinn beaten Hurkacz. That occurred at the Australian Open where the American ran out a straight-sets winner and didn’t lose serve once. Hurkacz has really struggled on return this season and has broken only 8% of the time, which is worryingly low.
Quinn is a good server so chances could be at a premium for Hurkacz here, especially given his opponent arrives in good form having recent won the Phoenix Challenger. His break figure is a much healthier 20% at tour level (23% overall) and I think there’s more than enough to like about Quinn to back him at odds-against.
ATP Miami Open: Zhizhen Zhang v Adrian Mannarino
A final underdog I’m going with in Miami this week is Mannarino. He’s one to follow when conditions suit and he’ll certainly be happier here than in Acapulco and Indian Wells where the courts were slow. It won’t be lightning fast here but it should certainly be quicker, which should allow Mannarino to play his attacking game which often brings him forward towards the net. While understandably disappointing in recent weeks, it’s only a month ago that Mannarino was in an ATP final (in Montpellier) and he could well flummox Zhang here.
The Chinese star is another still feeling his way back after long-term injury and he’s only 3-4 at tour level this year. He’s lost his last three matches, the most recent at the Cap Cana Challenger. OK, Zhang did win the pair’s only previous meeting but that was on the clay that Mannarino dislikes, during arguably the worst run of his career (one win in 18 in 2024). The Frenchman can take his revenge in Miami.
ATP Miami Open 2026: R1 Best Bets
Collignon to beat Dimitrov @ 2.1 with kwiff
Quinn to beat Hurkacz @ 2.05 with kwiff
Mannarino to beat Zhang @ 1.92 with kwiff
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