In the first edition of a new column, tennis expert Andy Schooler previews the first-round action at this week’s ATP Brisbane International 2025 down under.
ATP Brisbane International 2025: Frances Tiafoe v Adam Walton
Tiafoe reached the US Open semi-finals back in September but after that his season tailed off badly as he won just four of his 10 post-New York matches. Like many, the American will have hoped to have hit the reset button during the off-season but he’s often been a slow starter and a look back through his results in Australia show he’s won just three of nine openers in the country. Walton will need to step up if he’s to cause the upset but that’s more than possible.
He’s a local lad, born in Brisbane, so will be playing in front of great support and he arrives here off the back of a strong 2024 campaign which saw him break into the world’s top 100. Most of his success came on the Challenger Tour – six finals reached, two of which were won – but this looks a good opportunity for the Aussie to make an impact at main-tour level.
ATP Brisbane International 2025: Nishesh Basavareddy v Gael Monfils
Monfils is only a marginal favourite here and I’m not sure that’s right. Yes, Basavareddy did arguably perform above expectations at the pre-Christmas Next Gen ATP Finals in Jeddah and he has qualified here but this will be his first ‘proper’ tour-level match. Even at 38, the unorthodox Monfils remains difficult to face and he’s been a player who has regularly started the season well throughout his career.
Seven of his 12 career titles have been won in the first two months of the season, including two in this opening week. In total, he’s made five finals in the first week of a season. I put that down to a well-rested body – Monfils has often struggled physically with the rigours of the tour. When fully fit, he is still a tough nut to crack – just ask Carlos Alcaraz, who was beaten by the flamboyant Frenchman in Cincinnati in August.
ATP Brisbane International 2025: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard v Nick Kyrgios
Two of the sport’s biggest servers face off here and so this screams tie-breaks. Eighteen of Perricard’s 28 tour-level matches during his breakthrough 2024 season featured a tie-break as he served, on average, 19 aces per match.
On a hardcourt, it was 12 of 16, with nine of the 16 first sets going the distance. In Brisbane, where they play on a GreenSet hardcourt surface, conditions are faster than average and these two should find holding serve pretty easy. Neither is the best returner and Kyrgios will doubtless be rusty in that aspect of his game – this is his comeback after 18 months on the sidelines.
Obviously that’s where the problem could come but the service power Kyrgios generates is no natural that I’m not sure he’ll have too many worries finding that groove again. I started writing this before the odds went up and sadly we can only get 3/5 about a first-set tie-break. That’s not a price I can be putting up, even though a breaker looks highly likely.
ATP Brisbane International 2025: R1 Best Bets
Adam Walton to beat Frances Tiafoe @ 3.6 with kwiff
Gael Monfils to beat Nishesh Basavareddy @ 1.75 with kwiff
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