Our tennis man Andy Schooler picks out three underdogs for the first-round action at the ATP Cincinnati Open.
Denis Shapovalov v Adrian Mannarino (Thu)
My best bet in round one of the Cincinnati Masters event is Mannarino.
He’s always loved a faster surface and that’s usually what you get in Cincinnati where even last year’s surface change to Har-Tru failed to make much impact on the data.
He’s made the last 16 or better in three of his last five main-draw appearances in Ohio with Felix Auger-Aliassime and Tommy Paul among those defeated.
Having seen off Learner Tien in Washington recently without facing break point, Mannarino should be relishing this clash.
Yes, Shapovalov did make the recent final in Los Cabos but that event is played on a much slower hardcourt and it also had a pretty weak field – the Canadian only had to beat one player in the top 90 to reach the title match.
Take out that tournament and Shapovalov has won one of his last nine matches, the most recent of which saw him retire in Montreal with a leg injury.
He’s never really done much in Cincinnati – he holds a 6-6 win-loss record here – and, frankly, looks too short in the market.
Aleksandar Kovacevic v Karen Khachanov (Fri)
For a fairly big-priced outsider, it’s worth considering Kovacevic.
To be fair, this is more of a lay of Khachanov due to the Russian’s form.
He’s lost three in a row coming in here, and five of his last seven. A first-round loss in Los Cabos to Bernard Tomic is perhaps most worrying.
He’s really struggling at the moment, unable to dominate on serve as he’s often done in the past, and no win will come easy right now.
I understand those who will say Kovacevic’s form is just as bad – he’s lost six on the spin – but I think he’ll be happy to be back on the hardcourts and was only narrowly denied by Nuno Borges last week in Montreal.
He was a semi-finalist on the pacy hardcourts of Brisbane at the start of the season, so Cincinnati should suit. There were also good wins over Hubert Hurkacz and Corentin Moutet in Indian Wells.
Give the outsider a try at 2.8.
Martin Landaluce v Jack Draper (Thu)
Quite why anyone would back Draper at a short price right now is beyond me.
The Briton simply can’t stay fit and was last seen in tears when bowing out of Montreal as his long-standing injury issues continued.
Since beating Novak Djokovic in Indian Wells, Draper has played only eight matches and lost five of them. In four of those matches, he’s failed to win 67% of his first-serve points which is poor for a player whose serve has been such a major weapon in the past.
Again, the argument against will be that Landaluce doesn’t have the form to capitalise and, yes, he has lost his last five matches.
However, four of those have gone to a final set and I’m not sure he’s too far from rediscovering his form.
It should be remembered that the Spaniard was a quarter-finalist on the Miami hardcourts back in March and made the same stage on the Rome clay.
There was always likely to be a dip at some stage for the inexperienced 20-year-old and that has now come. However, this match-up gives him a chance to put things right and 3.0 just looks too big.
ATP Cincinnati: R1 Best Bets
Mannarino to beat Shapovalov @ 2.35 with kwiff
Kovacevic to beat Khachanov @ 2.8 with kwiff
Landaluce to beat Draper @ 3.0 with kwiff
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