After a handful of matches last weekend, the Autumn Internationals begin in earnest with matches on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Autumn Internationals: Expert Insight
Fiji could be a decent 2.85 to win in Wales but the focus here is on the match between Ireland and New Zealand, England’s outing against Australia and Scotland’s showdown with South Africa.
Autumn Internationals: Weary All Blacks
New Zealand won 24-22 at Twickenham last weekend and head to Dublin, albeit without a fit Beauden Barrett due to a concussion. Match-winner Damian McKenzie is expected to start at number 10 and while he lacks game-management skills, he has the pace to find gaps in a brilliant Irish defence.
Ireland will be without front-rowers Tadhg Furlong and Dan Sheehan but their squad has had a fortnight to prepare for Friday night, while the Kiwis have a six-day turnaround, a period that seems incompatible with top-level international rugby.
The All Blacks are still developing under Scott Robertson but have found a knack for staying in games and are likely to hold on for as long as they can at the Aviva. However, Ireland’s fresh legs in the final 20 minutes, combined with an electric atmosphere generated by an Irish crowd still smarting from their team’s 28-24 World Cup quarter-final defeat, suggest the hosts can get revenge with a bit to spare.
Autumn Internationals: Winning Wallabies
The Kiwis may have been criticised but Australia have been so bad in recent years that they have almost been ignored. However, with the games counting down before next summer’s first Test against the British & Irish Lions, Joe Schmidt needs to develop a gameplan.
The Wallabies won just once in this year’s Rugby Championship and appear unlikely to get a victory on Saturday at Twickenham, where England should respond. Barring a tactical tweak which sees Henry Slade move to inside centre and Ollie Lawrence drift out to his preferred 13 channel, Steve Borthwick has stuck with the same XV as against New Zealand and also added pace on the bench with Ollie Sleightholme.
Saturday’s fixture could hinge on England’s ability to see out the game. Borthwick’s call to bring a semi-sharp George Ford on for the in-form Marcus Smith potentially cost the Red Rose and was the latest instance of them squandering a winning opportunity. England have the ability to have the game wrapped up by the hour mark but the Wallabies can finish strongly and are worth considering at 1.76 with a +11.5 handicap, but the price is better for an England win by 8-14 points.
Autumn Internationals: Brilliant Bomb Squad
Scotland made a great start to the autumn by beating Fiji 57-17 but have scope to improve with Finn Russell and Blair Kinghorn to come into the side. They will need to step up a level or more, with South Africa next up in Edinburgh and aiming to kick on from winning the Rugby Championship by steaming through the autumn. Trips to London and Cardiff are still to come and Rassie Erasmus has already started the mind games ahead of the match at Murrayfield by delaying his team announcement from his traditional Tuesday slot to the more familiar Friday.
What’s clear is he will go big with his bench. The ‘Bomb Squad’ has been crucial to the Springboks’ success under Erasmus and recent comments from the camp regarding how hard Scotland pushed them in last year’s 18-3 win in the pool stages of last year’s World Cup suggest a six-two split. The Scots’ ability to play with pace might be the best way to challenge South Africa but the Boks wear opponents down and should squeeze home.
Autumn Internationals Tips
Ireland by 8-14 points @ 3.70 with kwiff
England by 8-14 points @ 3.40 with kwiff
South Africa by 1-7 points @ 3.80 with kwiff
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