After their first-Test collapse, can England bounce back in the Ashes when the second match of the series begins on Thursday? Andy Schooler takes a look in his latest kwiff preview…
The Ashes 2025/2026: Australia v England 2nd Test
Venue: The Gabba, Brisbane, Australia
Date/Time: Thursday December 4, 0400 GMT (5 days)
TV: TNT Sports 1
England 1-0 down in Australia – it’s a familiar tale. However, for the patriotic looking for hope, 2025 does feel a little different. Ben Stokes’ men were well in control of the opening Test in Perth at lunch on day two, when they were considerable favourites, yet two sessions later they’d been beaten by eight wickets in what must go down as one of the quickest turnarounds in Test history.
Their bowlers had pushed them into their position of strength on a pitch offering pace and bounce and that’s what is expected in Brisbane too. If their pace attack, which will this time be without Mark Wood and instead be complemented by Will Jacks’ spin, can replicate that effort, a series comeback could yet happen. England are 2.7 to win this game, although the big worry for punters considering going in on that is how much psychological damage was done in Perth.
The Ashes 2025/2026: Points to Prove
While they will no doubt have looked to move on, surely England’s players are still wondering how it went so wrong, so quickly, in Perth. They must also now overcome other mental hurdles. For example, they will know England have not won at The Gabba since the famous 1986/87 tour. Then there’s the pink-ball factor to consider with this Test being the latest day-night contest. Australia are 13-1 in such matches; England 2-5.
Australian batter Steve Smith has described day-night Tests as “a completely different game” – to back up that theory, he averages 37.04 against the pink ball and 58.31 against the red – while former England star Stuart Broad labelled them “a bit of a lottery” this week. A big factor is that the (black) seam is harder for a better to pick up under the lights, which helps explain why wickets have tended to start tumbling once the artificial light takes over.
The Ashes 2025/2026: Super Starc
That also explains why the team which wins the toss usually bats first – they are then guaranteed a few hours of batting in ‘normal’ conditions. Australia are definitely without batter Usman Khawaja and again look set to be without captain Pat Cummins and fellow paceman Josh Hazlewood. The good news is that they do have Mitchell Starc.
The left-armer took 10 wickets in the first Test and his pink-ball record is simply the best in world cricket. In his 14 day-night Tests, Starc has 81 wickets at 17.08 runs apiece. For perspective, his overall Test average is 26.64. While the layers are very much aware, that experience and level of performance mean he has to be backed in some shape or form. Starc is 2.5 to be top Australia bowler in the first innings but those seeking a bigger price can get 6.5 about him being man of the match, as he was in Perth.
The Ashes 2025/2026: Count on Carey
On the batting side, pink-ball Tests always provide the potential for a big-priced winner of the top-bat markets, although punters also need a little bit of luck in terms of when their man comes to the crease. For the Aussies, wicketkeeper Alex Carey has that potential at 8.0. He’s averaged an impressive 45.63 in 2025, while his average In Brisbane is 40, well above his career figure of 34.5.
He won this market in Perth and is more than capable of capitalising if the top order struggles again, either via some counter-attacking strokeplay or by digging in when the chips are down. Jamie Smith has similar potential in the equivalent England market – like Carey, he’s expected to bat at seven. He averages 46.79 in Tests with only Joe Root and Harry Brook having a better such figure.
However, he’s only 6.5 which is a shorter price than Ollie Pope who, to me, looks the value play in this market. Pope was arguably the most impressive of the English batters in Perth, getting a start in each innings and making scores of 46 and 33. Having come into the series under scrutiny, he more than justified his selection with two solid knocks at number three. A price of 7.0 just looks too big.
The Ashes 2025/2026: Australia v England 2nd Test
Starc Australia top bowler (1st inns) @ 2.5 with kwiff
Mitchell Starc Man of the Match @ 6.5 with kwiff
Carey Australia Top Batsman (1st Inns) @ 8.0 with kwiff
Ollie Pope Top England Batsman @ 7.0 with kwiff
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