South Africa are heavy favourites to beat Afghanistan in the first of two of the T20 World Cup Semi-Finals on Wednesday night but will their semi-final curse strike again?
T20 World Cup Semi-Finals: Afghanistan v South Africa
Venue: Brian Lara Stadium, Tarouba, Trinidad
Date/Time: Thursday June 27, 0130 BST
TV: Sky Sports Cricket and Main Event
Well, well, well – we have Afghanistan, not Australia, in the semi-finals of the T20 World Cup. Their upset of the Aussies during the Super 8s last week proved the crucial result in the section, although they must now land another upset if their fairytale run is the continue. The 2.9 outsiders should not be ruled out, however.
They’ve also beaten New Zealand and Bangladesh at this tournament with their bowling attack living up to pre-tournament expectations. Arguably their biggest stars though have been their two openers, Rahmanullah Gurbaz and Ibrahim Zadran. The batting had looked the problematic side for the Afghans but the opening pair have amassed partnerships worth 442 runs across their seven games – the most by a pair in a single T20 World Cup.
T20 World Cup Semi-Finals: Saffers Semis Hoodoo
Gurbaz leads the tournament run charts with 281, with Zadran not far behind on 229. Getting rid of those two cheaply will be key to South African chances but there may well be early nerves in the camp – the Proteas’ semi-final curse is well known.
For those unaware, South Africa have never won a semi-final at either the 20-over or 50-over World Cup events, suffering some agonising misses down the years – who can forget the Allan Donald run-out of 1999 or the unlucky rain-break which cost them in 1992, an incident which led to the introduction of the Duckworth-Lewis method?
T20 World Cup Semi-Finals: Early Afghan Breakthrough
This is surely the Proteas’ best-ever chance to break the curse but the tag of favourites has rarely hung comfortably around their necks. With those nerves in mind, my best bet on this match is for the South Africa’s first-wicket partnership to be under 23.5 runs.
It’s 1.8 either side of that line but the tournament stats very much favour the unders. The Afghan attack has taken a wicket inside two overs in six of their seven games so far, while they’ve bagged multiple wickets inside the first three overs in five of them. The opening stands against them have been 16-0-11-22-12-0-4 – not one above that 23.5 mark.
Looking at it from South Africa’s perspective, Quinton de Kock and Reza Hendricks have managed only one partnership above 23.5 in their seven outings. This looks a strong pick.
T20 World Cup Semi-Finals: Spin to Win
Looking at the top Afghan bowler market, it’s no surprise to see Rashid Khan as favourite but the Tarouba wicket hasn’t produced many wickets for the spinners thus far and I’m tempted by the 4.55 available about Naveen-ul-Haq.
He’s won this market in his side’s last two matches, taking four wickets against Bangladesh and three against the Aussies. He now has 13 wickets in the tournament, only one behind Khan and three off team-mate Fazalhaq Farooqi, who has tailed off since his flying start to the event.
Finally, I’m going to take a punt on Tristan Stubbs in the South Africa top bat market. De Kock has won this three times in seven games so is an understandable favourite but if he falls to that early Afghan onslaught, Stubbs will very much become a runner.
He was back at number four in the last game against West Indies, top-scoring with 29, and he’s made at least 20 in four matches, despite batting at six in several of them. Stubbs is not the most spectacular hitter in the line-up but he could be required to repair early damage and odds of 9.75 look worth a small play.
T20 World Cup Semi-Finals: Wednesday Jun 26 Best Bets
South Africa total at 1st dismissal to be under 23.5 @ 1.8 with Kwiff
Naveen-ul-Haq Afghanistan top bowler @ 4.55 with Kwiff
Tristan Stubbs South Africa top batter @ 9.75 with Kwiff
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