Hosts India face New Zealand in Sunday’s T20 World Cup final in Ahmedabad. Andy Schooler brings you his best bets, exclusively for kwiff.
T20 World Cup Final: India v New Zealand
Venue: Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad, India
Date/Time: Sunday March 8, 1330 GMT
TV: Sky Sports Cricket and Main Event
India were firm pre-tournament favourites and have duly taken their place in the final. New Zealand are the surprise finalists but once again they’ve delivered when it really matters and this will be their sixth ICC final in 11 years. The Black Caps are 2.7 to spring the upset in Ahmedabad, a ground which can usually be relied upon for big scores.
T20 World Cup Final: India Strong Favs
The tournament average of team batting first is 188.5, while the T20I history at the Narendra Modi Stadium shows 11 of the 14 first innings have reached at least 175, with only one score below 150. India have won seven of their 10 games here and also bring a strong record against New Zealand to the table. The sides have met 14 times in this format, India winning 10 with one tie and one abandonment. Their incredibly strong batting line-up showed what it is all about in Thursday’s semi-final when they topped 250 and while England gave it a good go in reply,
Jasprit Bumrah once again proved himself the world’s best bowler with two excellent overs just when they were needed. He also took 3-15 in four overs here against South Africa a week or so ago. England did at least show India can be vulnerable, something South Africa really hit home when they beat the hosts here in the Super 8s, skittling them for just 111. They are not unbeatable. However, New Zealand will likely need to perform to their top level.
T20 World Cup Final: India Strength in Depth
They managed to produce an excellent performance to shock South Africa in the semis, claiming early wickets and then dominating with the bat when asked to reply. Openers Finn Allen and Tim Seifert did all the damage in that innings, putting on 117 for the first wicket – their second century partnership of the tournament. However, probably a little too much rests on their shoulders, certainly on the batting front.
Given the personnel that are missing – and have been at times during the tournament – New Zealand have done remarkably well with the ball. Rachin Ravindra leads the way in terms of wickets with 11 but India are loaded with left-handers which threatens to make his left-arm spin less effective. That’s a concern for those considering the upset. Sadly, I’ve struggled to find big value in the markets. Instead, I’m going to focus on those two at the top of the New Zealand batting order.
T20 World Cup Final: Bank on NZ Openers
Allen was majestic in that semi-final run chase, blasting 100 from just 33 balls. He now leads the tournament for sixes, having stuck 20 of them. Allen also made 80 against India in his only game of January’s warm-up series. It’s a little surprising to see his run line as low as 22.5 – he’s now passed that in 10 of his last 13 T20I innings, including five of seven at this tournament. However, it’s the opening partnership market I’m most keen on. The line for this is set at 23.5 and Allen and Seifert have gone beyond that in each of the Black Caps’ last six matches, only failing to beat it in the opening match of the tournament.
Of course, this could be considered the best bowling attack they’ve faced, although it should be noted that India haven’t been striking early that regularly – only four of their eight games have seen them take the first wicket before their opponents have reached 24. Their leading wicket-takers, Bumrah and Varun Chakravarthy, haven’t been opening the bowling of late (Varun not at all at this tournament) and given the form of the New Zealand openers, I believe they can get off to a decent start in the powerplay again.
T20 World Cup Final: India v NZ Best Bets
New Zealand total at 1st dismissal over 23.5 runs @ 1.8 with kwiff
By Andy Schooler
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