Andy Schooler previews cricket’s Champions Trophy 2025, which gets under way on Wednesday, with New Zealand considered the value alternative to favourites India.
ICC Champions Trophy 2025: Andy Schooler’s Outright Tips
Dates – February 19 to March 9, 2025
Hosts – Pakistan (Lahore, Karachi & Rawalpindi) and UAE (Dubai)
Format – 8 teams, split into 2 groups of 4. Top 2 in each progress to semi-finals.
Champions Trophy 2025: Group-Stage Draw
Group A – Bangladesh, India, New Zealand, Pakistan
Group B – Afghanistan, Australia, England, South Africa
For the first time in eight years, the Champions Trophy is back on cricket’s calendar. When the 50-over tournament begins on Wednesday, the format will be the same as in 2017 (and 2013), the world’s best eight teams competing across a group stage before knockout semi-finals. What is different is that this time the competition will be split across two countries – and not neighbouring ones either.
That’s down to the Indian government, who refused to let their national team travel to the ICC’s chosen host nation, Pakistan. As a result, India will play all of their matches in the United Arab Emirates, Dubai to be precise, including the final, if they make it. That gives them a significant advantage as every other team faces the prospect of playing in at least three different venues. India’s squad will have been picked with Dubai in mind – it’s likely to produce fewer runs than the grounds in Pakistan. That said, they’d have been favourites any way.
Champions Trophy 2025: Imperious India
Despite having played very little one-day international cricket since losing in the final of the 2023 World Cup, the Indians demolished England in their recent warm-up series with even the absence of Jasprit Bumrah, arguably the world’s best ODI pace bowler, having little effect. He misses out here but there is great depth in the India squad – you only have to look at some of the players who didn’t make the cut to know that.
As ever, the batting looks strong with openers Rohit Sharma and Shubman Gill having both made runs in that England series. Virat Kohli oozes class at three, while then you run into Shreyas Iyer and KL Rahul. Hardik Pandya will provide ‘finishing’ ability too. With the ball, Bumrah’s stand-in Harshit Rana impressed against England, while Mohammed Shami was excellent at the last World Cup. However, it is the spinners who may well have the biggest say in Dubai with Ravindra Jadeja, Axar Patel and Kuldeep Yadav all likely to play in the starting XI. No-one can match that spin quality. In short, India look worthy favourites, although a price of 2.45 won’t be for everyone.
Champions Trophy 2025: Crafty Kiwis
Looking at alternatives, the side who appeal the most are New Zealand at 7.25. For me, they should not be sixth favourites. They’ve won seven of their 11 ODIs since that 2023 World Cup, including three in Pakistan in the past couple of weeks. They won that Tri-Series, which also included South Africa, in convincing fashion and looked very much ready for an assault on this title. Devon Conway will be joined by either Rachin Ravindra or Will Young to form a strong opening pair, while Kane Williamson plays the run-getting anchor role at three.
It’s notable that the Black Caps have the best run-rate between overs 10 and 40 in this format (since the World Cup) and a lot of that is down to Daryl Mitchell’s ability to keep the scoreboard ticking over against the spinners. Further down, Glenn Phillips can be relied upon to increase the pace towards the end of an innings. On the bowling front, captain Mitchell Santner leads a strong spin attack which features plenty of options. The possible weakness could be on the pace side where Matt Henry is an excellent weapon – he’s taken 14 wickets in five ODIs this year – but may be relied upon a little too much given the absence of Ben Sears, while Lockie Ferguson also starts the tournament nursing an injury.
New Zealand have played a lot of cricket in Pakistan in recent years, which should be to their advantage, and those two big wins over the hosts earlier this month should give them great confidence heading into the sides’ group-stage meeting, one which could well decide who qualifies from Group A, given it also contains India. In the other group, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Afghanistan – 16.9 for the title – spring an upset given the problems their opponents have right now.
Champions Trophy 2025: Dark Horses
Australia are almost unrecognisable from the team which became world champions less than 18 months ago with their entire first-choice pace attack – Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc – ruled out. Mitchell Marsh and Marcus Stoinis are other members of that side missing here. South Africa’s ODI form is rancid – four wins in 14 since the World Cup – while England don’t look like they can handle spin very well at all and that’s not good heading into a tournament on the sub-continent.
Champions Trophy 2025: Afghanistan
The Afghans, however, look well prepared. They’ve played more ODIs than any other side since that World Cup and have won their last four series. Admittedly, some opponents have been weak but South Africa and Bangladesh were among them. The outstanding Rashid Khan leads an excellent spin attack – he took 15 wickets in eight games in 2014 at an average of just 12.46 and will tie down most batters.
Death bowler Faz Farooqi and left-armer Fareed Ahmad have formed a good new-ball partnership, too. At the top of the order, Rahmanullah Gurbaz is a proven runscorer, who puts his foot down early, with the biggest area of concern being the middle order – will Afghanistan be able to accumulate runs in that middle stage of an innings? Still, I like their chances. They made the semi-finals of last year’s T20 World Cup and I can see them repeating that trick in the 2025 Champions Trophy.
2025 Champions Trophy Outright Selections
India to win @ 2.45 with kwiff
New Zealand to win @ 7.25 with kwiff
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