New-look England face Pakistan in the opening game of a three-Test series at Headingley this week. Andy Schooler previews the match…
Venue: Headingley, Leeds, England
Date/Time: Wednesday August 19, 1100 BST (5 days)
TV: Sky Sports Cricket
A new era begins for the England Test team on Wednesday
I say new. It’s really a case of back to the future in many ways with Joe Root taking the captaincy he last held (at least permanently) in 2022.
He replaces the now-retired Ben Stokes, while off the pitch Brendon McCullum is no longer in charge. He’ll soon be replaced by another Kiwi, Stephen Fleming, but for this series Marcus Trescothick steps in on an interim basis.
Stokes’ sudden decision to quit – midway through the final Test against New Zealand in June – means the team changes shape somewhat.
Now without a genuine all-rounder, Dan Lawrence – in great form for Surrey this year with five first-class hundreds to his name – will bat in Stokes’ spot at six. There’s also change at three where Jordan Cox replaces the injured Jacob Bethell.
Headingley’s famous seam-friendly conditions mean an all-pace attack is likely.
There is a battery of such bowlers in England’s squad, but it seems the most likely quartet is Jofra Archer, Josh Tongue, Gus Atkinson and Ollie Robinson.
Atkinson and Tongue were, however, involved in the final of The Hundred on Sunday so their fitness will need checking.
The ECB’s insistence on filling August with white-ball cricket means England again come into a Test series looking underprepared (see New Zealand earlier this summer; Ashes series last winter).
The good news for them is that they have an excellent record at Headingley, having won seven of eight here over the last decade, including three by an innings.
While Headingley is notorious for ball movement when there’s cloud cover, it can be pretty bat friendly when the sun is out as evidenced by the fact that England have twice chased down 350-plus here to win in the past seven years. Who can forget that Stokes effort – alongside Jack Leach – to beat Australia in 2019? West Indies also made 322 in the fourth innings to claim victory in 2017.
The unique conditions of Headingley have often flummoxed touring teams and you do wonder how this Pakistan side will fare.
It is far from the strongest Pakistan team we’ve seen at Test level and it will be weakened further if batters Babar Azam, the captain, and Shan Masood fail fitness checks.
Having arrived in England off the back of a 1-1 series draw in the West Indies, they did at least beat a Professional County Club XI in their sole warm-up match in Beckenham last week and are 3.7 to back that up in Leeds.
I wouldn’t normally consider that – England (1.47) look the more capable side on home soil, especially given Pakistan haven’t won an away series since 2023 (in Sri Lanka) and have gone 1-8 in away Test matches since.
However, the weather forecast could make them a bet.
Rain is expected on the first three days and with cloud around, there’s every chance batting is tough for both sides, certainly first time around.
There’s already been significant rainfall in Leeds this week – the first for a long time – and you wonder if that will have had an effect on pitch preparations.
It’s not hard to see this turning into something of a turkey shoot – we saw how all the batters struggled when the ball was doing a lot at Lord’s back in June. That game really could have gone either way and there’s a chance this one comes down to when the sun comes out and who is batting at the time.
I suspect there will be plenty of in-play opportunities for punters but this preview needs pre-match picks and so, with that potential for a low-scoring game – or at least first innings – in mind, I want to back unders on the runs front.
The best way to do it looks to be to back Root to score under 37.5 runs in his first innings.
There’s obviously going to be a lot of focus on the new skipper, who will be playing on his home ground.
He’s shown he can handle such pressure. However, the fact is that seven of his 11 first-innings knocks in Headingley Tests have seen him fall before getting to 38.
And in terms of recent Test form, he’s made 38 or more in just five of his 16 innings since the start of the Ashes in November.
37.5 just seems a high figure for a game where runs are likely to be at a premium, certainly in the early stages.
My second pick comes in the England top bowler market.
I’m a big fan of Ollie Robinson and his pace-off approach is exactly the style which has reaped rewards here over the years – I’m old enough to remember the likes of James Kirtley and Ryan Sidebottom causing problems in LS6.
His Test average of 21.91 is top drawer. It improves slightly against Pakistan – all the more impressive given all those matches took place on the sub-continent – while at Headingley it’s a terrific 17.0. He was man of the match here in 2021 against the Indians.
Robinson was excellent in that aforementioned Lord’s Test against New Zealand, taking seven wickets, including five in the first innings, but he was unable to play in the rest of the series.
He should be champing at the bit to get back involved and gets the nod in this market.
England v Pakistan 1st Test 2026: Best Bets
Root under 37.5 runs (1 st inns) @ 1.8 with kwiff
Robinson England top bowler @ 2.95 with kwiff
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