England will look to bounce back from their Ashes debacle when they host New Zealand at Lord’s. Andy Schooler previews the first of three Tests.
England v New Zealand 1st Test at Lord’s
Venue: Lord’s, London, England
Date/Time: Thursday, June 4, 1100 BST (5 days)
TV: Sky Sports Cricket
We’ve been here before. England, fresh from an Ashes mauling Down Under, look to rebuild with a home series against opponents they are supposed to defeat. It was actually New Zealand who were the visitors in this scenario four years ago when Brendon McCullum had just arrived to replace Chris Silverwood as coach.
After the 4-1 defeat in Australia, McCullum has managed to keep his job, while Ben Stokes remains as captain. There has not been wholesale change. But Zak Crawley and Ollie Pope have been ditched, along with Brydon Carse. Emilio Gay, of Durham, is expected to open with Jacob Bethell at three. In the bowling department, Ollie Robinson looks set to play at Lord’s after a recall, although what happens when Jofra Archer returns remains to be seen.
The core of the team will still be the one which was well beaten in Australia, although it should be remembered they were on top in the first two Tests of that series before losing both matches. McCullum says the side will be “more refined” but that he still wants them to “play brave and positive cricket”. The pressure will certainly be on – there will be plenty more changes ahead if New Zealand aren’t seen off in the coming weeks. That is no given either.
As ever, the Kiwis appear to be under-rated ahead of the series opener. They have a strong batting unit, capable of attacking strokeplay, while there’s real potential in their bowling attack with leader Matt Henry now joined by fit-again pacemen Will O’Rourke and Kyle Jamieson – both of whom will bring the ball down from a great height – and that’s before I mention Nathan Smith, a wily bowler in helpful conditions, a as he showed when taking eight wickets against Ireland last week.
England v New Zealand: Kiwis Love Lord’s
Tom Latham’s side have won nine of their last 12 Tests, a run which began with a stunning 3-0 victory in India. With several of their players having decent experience in county cricket, conditions should not be too alien to them, either. While it has been a hot May, rain in recent days should help spice up a pitch which has often helped the bowlers at this time of year and that New Zealand attack looks like it could do well.
At the prices, I much prefer to back the tourists here. Unlike England, there’s no noise surrounding them and they should be full of confidence given how they’ve played over the past 18 months in this format. Looking to the sub-markets, backing Tom Blundell for top New Zealand batter makes appeal. He’ll be coming in at six, probably, but we’ve seen how the middle order has often been a good place to be in terms of winning this market in England.
The Dukes ball moves plenty early on but much less as it wears. You only have to look across to England’s line-up and see Jamie Smith’s record to see how he’s profited from a spot in the middle order – he has two tons and five 50s in his 12 home Tests.
Blundell has an excellent record against England, averaging 59.8, with three centuries and four 50s in nine Tests. On New Zealand’s last tour here, he made scores of 96 (here at Lord’s), 106 and 88 not out. He also looked a great form in that Belfast Test last week, scoring 186, so he gets the nod. On the England side of things, Gus Atkinson will have his backers for top bowler given his record at Lord’s – he averages a stunning 10.94 here. However, he’s only 2.9 in the market which looks short enough.
England v New Zealand: Harry Houdini
Turning to the batting markets, Harry Brook to score under 30.5 runs looks interesting. While the Yorkshire batter was second in the England run charts in the Ashes, he failed to make it to 50. His Lord’s record is a disappointing – an average of 31.0 being well down on his impressive overall Test figure of 54.79. He’s played a couple of matches for his county this season but hasn’t made it past 40 in three innings. This looks an opportunity to oppose him.
Finally, I’m going back to the point about the moving new Dukes ball. Opposing teams have struggled against it at Lord’s with the data showing a series of low opening partnerships in recent matches. Over the past four years, non-English sides have put on the following for the first wicket at the Home of Cricket: 13-12-0-18-34-73-15-85-1 New Zealand have their line set at 23.5 and I’m quite happy to go under that. That’s landed in six of the nine examples above, while the Black Caps put on just four for the first wicket in Belfast.
England v New Zealand: Lord’s Test Tips
New Zealand to win @ 2.85 with kwiff
Blundell Top NZ Batsman (1st inns) @ 6.25 with kwiff
Brook under 30.5 runs (1st inns) @ 1.8 with kwiff
NZ total at 1st dismissal under 23.5 runs @ 1.8 with kwiff
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