Andy Schooler’s two outright picks will contest Sunday’s Champions Trophy 2025 final but will India or New Zealand lift the trophy in Dubai?
Champions Trophy Final 2025: Andy Schooler’s Expert Preview
Venue: Dubai International Cricket Stadium, Dubai, UAE
Date/Time: Sunday March 9, 0900 GMT
TV: Sky Sports Cricket
Sunday’s Champions Trophy final is a dream one for backers of our outright preview. We put up both India (2.45) and New Zealand (7.25) and they will now compete for the title in Dubai. Given those prices, it would be nice for the Black Caps to reverse their group-stage loss to the same opponents and lift the trophy – and I doubt we’re the only ones who will be wanting the underdogs to win.
Champions Trophy Final 2025: Deserved Favourites
Those who care about sporting integrity would love to see the team who have played at four different venues in this tournament succeed against the one which has been able to play every match at the same ground due to their refusal to visit host nation Pakistan. It was explained how much of an advantage that would be in that outright preview and India have looked very settled in Dubai, where runs have been pretty scarce, with only one first-innings score above 250 in the four matches so far.
Champions Trophy Final 2025: Dangerous Kiwis
New Zealand, 2.75 to land the upset here, restricted India to 249 in that group-stage encounter but then struggled with the bat themselves, losing regular wickets to the Indian spinners, who again look set to play a huge part on a sluggish surface. How New Zealand fare in those key middle overs will be crucial to their chances. It didn’t go well a week ago, although they do have players with a proven ability to rotate the strike in Kane Williamson, Daryl Mitchell and Tom Latham, all of whom have contributed in the past few weeks.
However, they also must restrict India, who have looked capable of chasing down everything so far – Virat Kohli was immense after Australia had put them under some pressure by posting 264. If New Zealand have to do without Matt Henry, that task would become even more difficult. The tournament’s leading wicket-taker, who took five wickets against India last weekend, injured his shoulder in the field during the semi-final win over South Africa and is now a doubt. That’s a big concern for anyone considering the upset and, frankly, I’m not among that number, especially given the outright position.
Champions Trophy Final 2025: Jubilant Jadeja
Instead, it’s off to the sub-markets where one of those spinners looks a big price in the India top-bowler market. Ravi Jadeja is yet to win this bet at the tournament but he has landed it in two of the eight ODIs he’s played in Dubai. He also delivered for his backers in both games he played against England in last month’s warm-up series and so has now won in three of his last 10 matches in this format. It would have been four but for Mohammed Shami taking a wicket with his last ball in the semi-final.
Champions Trophy Final 2025: Back the Unders
With his strong economy rate of 4.78 – the fifth best in the tournament of those who have bowled at least 100 balls – Jadeja will add pressure to the Black Caps’ batters. He took 1-36 from eight overs last weekend and I just feel he’s a tad overpriced here at 5.0. However, my best bet for this match comes in one of the specials markets. The highest-scoring over line is set at 16.5 and, on this pitch, I’m happy to go under this mark. Only one over bowled at this ground in the tournament has gone above 15.5, never mind 16.5, and it was Bangladesh batting that day.
As for New Zealand, the only over of 17+ in their four matches so far was the most recent – when South African David Miller teed off with the semi-final already lost. That’s a scenario that doesn’t present itself too often. This is a pitch where big-hitting is full of risk and this final won’t be high scoring. Follow the data and take the unders.
Champions Trophy Final 2025: Best Bets
Ravi Jadeja India top bowler @ 5.0 with kwiff
Highest-scoring over under 16.5 @ 1.95 with kwiff
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