England face a must-win clash with Afghanistan at the ICC Champions Trophy 2025 on Wednesday but Andy Schooler says it might not be as easy as the odds suggest.
Champions Trophy 2025: England v Afghanistan Preview
Venue: Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore, Pakistan
Date/Time: Wednesday February 26, 0900 GMT
TV: Sky Sports Cricket
England managed to score 351 against Australia in their Champions Trophy opener but still finished on the losing side – more evidence of their inability to contain sides. That should offer Afghanistan plenty of hope that they can keep their tournament hopes alive after defeat to South Africa left them in trouble too.
Champions Trophy 2025: Spin is Key
They will likely employ a battery of spinners – led by the outstanding Rashid Khan – in a bid to stifle England, although Ben Duckett managed to target the Aussie twirlers as he made 165 on Saturday. Still, it was worth noting that Adam Zampa tied down all the other England batters and we saw how they struggled against spin during the recent ODI series in India.
Staying on the bat-friendly track in Lahore will likely be welcomed by England’s big hitters but that spin threat is a concern, while there’s no getting away from the fact that Jos Buttler’s men have now lost 11 of their last 15 ODIs. It should also be remembered that the Afghans won the most-recent meeting of these sides, convincingly, at the 2023 World Cup in India, a result which will have stayed in the minds of both sides.
Champions Trophy 2025: Hit for Six
At the prices, it just seems Afghanistan are too big at 3.2. They may struggle if England post another big total, but that should not be taken as read, while the England pace attack is certainly vulnerable – it went 3-226 across 26.3 overs against Australia and could now lose the injured Brydon Carse. In the sub-markets, going over the total sixes line looks arguably the best bet for this match. That line is set at 9.5 and the overs have landed in six of the nine ODIs played in Lahore since play returned here in 2022, including five of the last six.
Saturday’s England-Australia game saw 16, of which England struck seven, while Afghanistan’s two ODIs here in 2023 saw totals of 18 and 11. England’s six-hitting ability is well known with the likes of Buttler, Liam Livingstone and Harry Brook in the side, while it’s worth noting that Afghan opener Rahmanullah Gurbaz hit more ODI sixes than any other player in 2024. Azmatullah Omarzai was third in that list, with Livingstone in between.
Champions Trophy 2025: Awesome Atal
Finally, the price about Sediqullah Atal being the top Afghanistan batter looks out. The 23-year-old only made his ODI debut in November but he’s made some decent scores with is tallies so far being 16-52-104-14-39-21. He also made 52 in a warm-up game (without full ODI status) against New Zealand last week.
Initially playing as an opener, Atal dropped down to number three against South Africa but that probably suits better as he’s known more as a run-gatherer rather than a big-hitter like Gurbaz. It’s rare to a see a number three at 6.25 in this market and that’s a price worth snaffling.
Champions Trophy 2025: Eng v Afg Best Bets
Afghanistan to beat England @ 3.2 with kwiff
Total sixes over 9.5 @ 1.75 with kwiff
Sediqullah Atal Top Afg Batsman @ 6.25 with kwiff
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