Andy Schooler landed two winners from three bets in Melbourne and is back with more Ashes 2025/2026 tips ahead of the fifth and final test at the SCG. Read his exclusive tips each and every week with kwiff.
Ashes 2025/2026: 5th Test Preview
Venue: Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney, Australia
Date/Time: Saturday January 3, 2330 GMT (5 days)
TV: TNT Sports 1
Following the recent trends proved good business for punters in Melbourne where another low-scoring Test unfolded – and helped us land the 3.9 bet on no century in the match. Now the series heads to Sydney for its conclusion where last year neither side made 200 in the first innings (India being the visitors).
Ashes 2025/2026: Batters Paradise
However, that game very much bucked the trend for what has generally been regarded as a batter’s pitch. Indeed, the previous 10 Tests had seen the side batting first make at least 300. The SCG has a lower bounce than most of its Australian counterparts, while the wicket has tended to deteriorate as the match wears on, which explains why this is considered the most spin-friendly ground in the country.
Shane Warne and Stuart MacGill racked up wickets aplenty here over the years, as has the injured Nathan Lyon, who will be missed by the hosts. Todd Murphy looks set to play his role, coming in for Jhye Richardson, who didn’t bowl much in Melbourne. Beau Webster is also being touted for the all-rounder role, instead of Cameron Green.
Ashes 2025/2026: Changed Attack
As for England, they will have to make one change from their victorious fourth-Test side, Matt Potts likely to replace the injured Gus Atkinson. The latter’s hamstring injury means England have now lost three of the four bowlers who started the series in Perth. Rotation hasn’t been possible, with Josh Tongue, Brydon Carse and Ben Stokes bowling plenty despite the relatively short games.
Ashes 2025/2026: Sydney Stats
A similar thing can be said of the Aussies, for whom captain Pat Cummins has played only once, so I wouldn’t be too surprised if some of the bowlers struggled this week, especially given Cricket Australia’s need for a longer match and, therefore, a more bat-friendly strip.
If there’s one venue that could produce a draw – a rarity in this day and age – it’s Sydney where six of the last 11 Tests have been drawn. With showers forecast on days one and two, that result should not be ruled out, although 6.5 is too short to get involved with. England are 3.05 to repeat their Melbourne win, although Australia (1.55) are unbeaten in 14 here – England’s 2011 vintage the last visiting side to win at the SCG.
My pre-series thoughts on this game surrounded the potential for spin success – perhaps my view of Warne as the greatest bowler of all time is the reason for that. In Adelaide, Lyon troubled England’s batters, who haven’t seen much spin the series, and if Murphy is able to find his A-game and the surface is helpful, it’s not hard to see him causing problems in the second innings and potentially bowling his side to victory.
He’s 11.0 to be named man of the match. However, history shows the market has regularly been won by a batter and so the price isn’t for me. Instead, let’s take this opportunity to mention Usman Khawaja, for it is he who has been man of the match in two of the last four Sydney Tests.
Ashes 2025/2026: Bank on Usman
A former New South Wales player, his record here is mightily impressive – four tons in his last 10 Test innings, with an overall average of 87.5. There’s also the lingering thought that this will be the 39-year-old’s final Test appearance and so I’m sure he’ll be fully motivated, not something you can be sure of with every player given the state of the series.
This is also a good time to tell you of a noteworthy trend. Six of the last 12 first-innings top-bat markets in Sydney have been won by a player batting five or six. Expect Khawaja to stick at five here. I’ll back Khawaja to top-score for the Aussies at 5.7 and also have a small flutter on him being man of he match again at 13.0.
Ashes 2025/2026: Up and Down Openers
Another batter I’m keen to follow is Zak Crawley. After an absolute shocker in Perth, he’s been one of the better England batters, making two half-centuries and largely avoiding some of the daft shots which have undermined England’s campaign. It’s worth noting his average against Australia is above 39 – only Joe Root has a better figure and it’s only half a run more. Over 20.5 runs is something Crawley has managed in four of his last six innings, while 6.25 about him being England’s top batter looks a little on the large side.
Finally, I’m happy to oppose Jake Weatherald again. Backing the Australian opener for under 24.5 runs was a winner in Melbourne and his runs line has moved down just one here. He’s now gone under the 23.5 mark in seven of eight innings in the series and, given that streak, the pressure is now on – Weatherald needs a score here if he wants to keep his place in the side going forward. There was plenty of pre-series discussion about him not being of the quality required and even the man himself may be questioning that now.
Ashes 2025/2026: SCG Best Bets
Khawaja Australia top batter (1st inns) @ 5.7 with kwiff
Khawaja man of the match @ 13.0 with kwiff
Crawley England top batter (1st inns) @ 6.25 with kwiff
Crawley over 20.5 runs (1st inns) @ 1.8 with kwiff
Weatherald under 23.5 runs (1st inns) @ 1.8 with kwiff
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