Cathryn Fry previews the opening two days of The Leopardstown Christmas Festival, and gives her best bets ahead of a mouth-watering week of racing
Leopardstown Christmas Festival 2024: Cathryn Fry Huge Fancies
Hello Neighbour has yet to make his debut over hurdles, but his pedigree and early performances suggest he could become a standout in the juvenile hurdling division. Gavin Cromwell’s charge made a strong impression when winning his maiden on the Flat at Navan in September, staying on powerfully to claim victory on his racecourse debut. In that race, he left Double Agent, Get, and Soul Of Spain trailing in second, third, and fourth respectively. All three subsequently won, with Get and Soul Of Spain earning lofty ratings in the 90s, underscoring the strength of the form.
Leopardstown Christmas Festival: Hello Neighbour
After his promising debut, Hello Neighbour returned to action on the Flat in October, securing an impressive victory in a rated race at Roscommon over 10 and a half furlongs—a trip that was likely shorter than ideal for him. Despite this, he showed class and determination to prevail. With just two runs under his belt, he already boasts a Flat rating of 97, highlighting his potential. By Harzand, Hello Neighbour is a half-brother to A Wave Of The Sea, a high-class juvenile hurdler who famously captured the Grade One Spring Juvenile Hurdle, albeit with a touch of luck.
Cromwell clearly holds his new recruit in high esteem and has reported positive progress in his schooling sessions ahead of his hurdling debut. The gelding is set to make his first appearance over hurdles at Leopardstown, a test that could solidify his reputation as a top juvenile prospect. A strong performance there might see his current odds for the Triumph Hurdle slashed significantly, making him one to watch closely as the season unfolds. However, Naturally Nimble, looked a real talent last time out and Willy De Houx beaten by him that day, lines up again. This is a cracker of a Juvenile.
Leopardstown Christmas Festival: Repeat Offenders
The big betting race of the day offers intriguing trends, typically favouring runners rated in the low 130s or classy contenders carrying top weights. This year, the focus seems to shift to the latter, as those fitting the usual ratings profile lack strong market support. The natural starting point is the 2023 1-2 finishers, Panda Boy and Meetingofthewaters. This time, Panda Boy benefits from a 16lb swing in the weights, reduced to a 9lb advantage with 7lb claimer , Peter Smithers, aboard Meetingofthewaters.
While this setup appears favourable for Martin Brassil’s charge, the gap from last year’s form—just 4.5 lengths—might well be bridged. Notably, both runners finished well clear of Real Steel in 2023, who subsequently claimed the Munster National and had won this race two years prior. That Limerick form has been further boosted, with fifth-placed Stuzzikini recently landing the Troytown Chase at Navan.
Leopardstown Christmas Festival: Pesky Pinkerton
Willie Mullins also takes weight off top weight Nick Rockett, who closed out last season with an impressive third in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown. Meanwhile, Hgranca De Thaix and Perceval Legallois, the 1-2 from Punchestown, renew their rivalry here. Both come in with solid claims for the Connell and Cromwell teams. Pinkerton, winner of the Galway Plate, caught the eye when running a strong race over an inadequate trip at Down Royal in the autumn. This step up in distance should play to his strengths, with Noel Meade also opting for Rob James’ 7lb claim to offset a 9lb rise since Ballybrit.
Gordon Elliott’s pair, Three Card Brag and Will Do, could also make an impact—Three Card Brag sporting first-time blinkers, and Will Do stepping up in trip. Further down the field, Macdermott, last season’s Scottish Grand National winner, and 2023 Kerry National victor Desertmore House could thrive in a fast-paced contest. With the race wide open, value may lie in the longer shots. Lucid Dreams, runner-up in the Troytown, and the ever-consistent Positive Thinker, second in the Cork Grand National, are both capable of springing surprises. At the time of writing, Pinkerton is 16/1, he will be my bet in this.
By Cathryn Fry
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