Dave Massey is back with his Best Bets for Thursday at Newmarket.
13:50 Newmarket – British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies Handicap 6f
Woohoo deserves a change of luck after finishing second five times in her last six starts and this could be a good opportunity.
She was a bit unlucky at Goodwood earlier in the season, as she “won” her small group on the near side but found Sing The Blues a neck too good on the other side of the track, and a drop back to five furlongs proved no issue at Musselburgh on her next start, just getting a run too late a going down by a neck. Two runs at York since, both over 7f, might just have stretched her stamina a little but both efforts gave the impression she’s still in top form, and she should find this 6f test much more to her liking. The booking of David Egan looks a good one, and she should go close.
14:25 Newmarket – Federation Of Bloodstock Nursery Handicap 5f
A few of these are starting to look a little exposed, and one or two others are trying headgear or have been gelded to try and get them back on track, so I’m going to take a bit of a flyer with the unexposed Valdoro, who makes his handicap debut today from a mark that couldn’t be described as a gimme, but he is open to improvement.
He showed some promise behind Libertango on debut at Leicester and followed that up with a better third at Windsor, form that’s pretty much untested. I’d be forgiving of his lesser effort at Sandown last time as he got took on up front and the slower ground probably didn’t help his cause either. Should be front rank throughout and might not need to improve that much to take a hand in the finish.
15:00 Newmarket – Tattersalls Stakes 7f
A race I’m keen to play, as the books have installed Great Balls Of Fire as the early favourite and for my money he’s got a fair bit to find on the bare form of his win over Sky Symphony on the July Course here in August. The form of that is untested and the time figure was very moderate, so for my money, he’s too short.
By contrast, Mezzo Forte’s York win has already been boosted by the second, Bayraktar, winning at Beverley next time and the time figure was much more solid. He improved on his debut, relishing a step up to 7f, and should continue to improve. Ryan Moore takes the ride and I’d have him a bit shorter than he is in the early market.
15:35 Newmarket – Jockey Club Rose Bowl 2m
How do you price a horse like Peace Belle up here?
The books have totally dismissed her chance, making her the rank outsider (and then some) but you could equally argue a case her efforts in the G3 John Smiths Silver Cup (beaten a staying on 3¼ lengths) and fifth in the Doncaster Cup last time (again, finishing within hailing distance of winner Caballo De Mar) give her a chance of making the places here. Both those races were steadily run and she could simply be very flattered by them, and the naysayers will point to an odds-on defeat at Carlisle between this efforts as further proof her rating isn’t worth the paper it’s written on. However, back on better ground and in another race that has the potential to be no more than steadily run, she could once again outrun massive odds. I’d be willing to throw a fiver each-way at her at 66s and bigger to find out.
By Dave Massey
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