Europe’s World Cup play-off semi-finals take place on Thursday. Andy Schooler picks out his best bets for the key games…
World Cup Qualifiers: Football Tips, March 25th 2026
Italy have failed to qualify for the last two World Cups. Surely it can’t happen again? Well, they’ve certainly made life tough for themselves – while they may be hot favourites to win this game, they will have to travel for next week’s final if they do make it through. And it should be remembered that four years ago at this stage, they lost at home to North Macedonia.
World Cup Qualifiers: Italy v Northern Ireland
In short, Northern Ireland are not without hope but those hopes have undoubtedly been hit by injury with two of their Premier League players – Conor Bradley and Dan Ballard – shorn from their defence. With Italy having scored 21 times in their eight qualifiers, that is worrying. The Italians were pushed into second place in their group by Norway, who won eight out of eight, but what is now Gennaro Gattuso’s side won all of their other games and kept clean sheets in their other three home matches.
Northern Ireland are only here due to their Nations League performance – they finished third in their qualifying group, winning only nine of a possible 18 points. Six of them came via wins over Luxembourg. Throw in their defensive issues and it’s not hard to see Italy dominating this one. Mateo Retegui has been the star man for them in qualifying with five goals and four assists – he’s at 1.98 and 2.65 in the relevant anytime markets. That looks short enough, as does the 2.65 on offer about another assist for Federico DiMarco, who has delivered one in eight of his last 13 international appearances.
However, DiMarco to score may well be worth a try. While the left wing-back has only scored three goals for his country over the years, DiMarco has bagged seven already this season for Inter Milan, while his shot numbers for Italy have been impressive of late – he had 15 in six starts in the qualifying group. With the Irish likely to form something of a low block, he should get plenty of scope to get forward down the left and I think a small bet on him finding the net is worthwhile given the odds of 6.4.
World Cup Qualifiers: Wales v Bosnia & Herzegovina
Wales need to win two games in Cardiff over the next few days to book their ticket to the World Cup – the winners of this game will host Italy or Northern Ireland on Tuesday. Craig Bellamy’s side have been among the goals in qualifying so far, scoring 21 in eight games – and only Belgium managed to win on Welsh soil, the other three games all won. The last of those, in November, saw Kazakhstan crushed 7-1.
The Bosnians failed to win on the road in their group but in finishing second behind Austria, they only conceded seven goals in eight games so have the potential to frustrate Wales here. Former Manchester City striker Eden Dzeko, now 40, is still going strong and he scored five goals in the group stage – he’s 3.6 to find the net here. However, the man at the top of goalscorer lists is Harry Wilson – he has nine goals in his last 12 internationals. Boss Bellamy admitted he was irreplaceable, adding: “When he hasn’t played, you can see the difference.”
The good news is the Fulham star should start here, although he’s only 2.7 to score. Perhaps a better value alternative is to back Sorba Thomas in the anytime assist market at 3.5. The Stoke man has managed five assists in qualifying so far – a figure only bettered by Norway’s Martin Odegaard. Thomas has nine in the Championship this season – second only to Gustavo Hamer – and could well be the man capable of unlocking Bosnia down the left.
World Cup Qualifiers: Czechia v Rep. of Ireland
Ireland finished their group campaign with a flourish in November, stunning both Portugal and Hungary to book a play-off spot, something which had looked impossible after they took just one point from their first three qualifiers. The question now is can they continue that momentum after four months without a game?
Troy Parrott scored five times across those two key wins but that feels unsustainable and the results do look very much like outliers when you consider the longer-term picture. This was a side which lost to Armenia in September, drew in Luxembourg in the summer and lost 5-0 to England last season. Travelling to Czechia is also a tough task.
They’ve lost just one of their last 24 home games (to Portugal). During that spell, they’ve beaten the likes of Switzerland, Poland, Ukraine, Albania and Georgia – all recent tournament finalists – and drawn with reigning European champions Spain. In their four home qualifiers so far, they’ve won three, drawn one and conceded just the single goal. At close to evens, I’m happy to side with long-term stability over what might just have been a flash in the pan.
2026 World Cup Qualifiers Best Bets
DiMarco anytime scorer @ 6.4 with kwiff
Thomas anytime assist @ 3.5 with kwiff
Czechia to beat Rep of Ireland @ 1.88 with kwiff
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