Andy Schooler previews Sunday’s World Cup final between Spain and Argentina.
Spain v Argentina, New York/New Jersey (BBC & ITV, 8pm)
Having tipped up Spain in my outright preview pre-tournament, I was happy to see them take down the much-fancied France in the semi-finals.
I was less pleased that Argentina found a way past England, although that had little to do with any financial position I may have taken.
Spain now find themselves favourites to lift a trophy they last won in 2010 and rightly so.
They made the tournament’s most-feared attack look impotent on Tuesday and they controlled the game for large parts.
Excluding penalty shoot-outs, Spain are now unbeaten in 37 games and avoiding defeat here would see them set a new record in international football.
To do so, they will have to stave off a side which has top-scored at this World Cup and one featuring the player who, even at 39, could still be the world’s best, Lionel Messi.
The presence of Messi probably helps explain why this is a team which never looks beaten and their battling qualities have got them through some sticky moments in the past few weeks, notably when 2-0 down to Egypt and then, on Wednesday, when they were just five minutes from exiting at the hands of England.
They may well have been defeated had England been able to keep things going instead of conceding possession and sitting off; Spain won’t do that.
England, at times, showed how Argentina can be vulnerable at the back – they haven’t kept a clean sheet since the group stage. They can certainly be ‘got at’ in wide areas – the general consensus is that their full-backs aren’t great.
I can certainly see Nicolas Tagliafico struggling with the Lamine Yamal, Pedro Porro combination down the Argentina left.
He’s no stranger to a card but is too short at 2.5, especially considering how reluctant referees have been to go to their pocket in the tournament.
For the record, Slavko Vincic is the man with the job here – the Slovenian has shown eight cards in three matches at this World Cup.
Another key battle could be down the Spain left where Marc Cucurella has been excellent and I’m intrigued to see how he gets involved against
Messi, who will drift in field from positions on the right.
However, maybe the area in which the match will be won will be the same one Spain succeeded in against France, and that’s central midfield.
Rodri and Fabian Ruiz were excellent that day in winning the ball, keeping possession and providing Spain with a platform to attack. Here they will be facing Enzo Fernandez and Leandro Paredes, who will need to deliver big performances if Argentina are to win this.
It is the way that Rodri and Ruiz exerted control against the French that reinforces my view that Spain are the team to beat here.
They’ve been the tournament’s best team defensively with just a single goal conceded. En route to this final, they’ve become the first team to keep six clean sheets in a World Cup.
And it’s that solidity which makes me believe there’s value in backing Spain to win to nil.
Of course, Argentina do tend to get on the scoresheet – no surprise with Messi in their ranks – but Spain should keep the ball a lot in this one and they’ve been very difficult to break down, as that record shows.
While it’s true that the last two World Cup finals have both been goal-fests, the long-term trend has been for the match to be a tight affair.
Indeed, the losers of six of the last nine have failed to score.
As already mentioned, England were just five minutes away from landing this bet and Spain’s greater quality makes them backable at 3.3.
In the sub-markets, I’ve mentioned Fabian Ruiz and Dani Olmo in the shot markets in recent games and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing those players for 2+ shots again at odds-against.
However, a better bet for me in this contest comes in the same market and that’s Enzo Fernandez to have over 1.5 shots.
The Chelsea midfielder showed his propensity for long-range shooting against England and he was rewarded, in the end, with a goal from one such situation.
That will send him into this game in confident mood and whenever a player has jus fired in a spectacular strike such as that, I always feel they are likely to let fly again in the following match.
In addition, it’s not hard to see Argentina being restricted in terms of getting into the Spain penalty area so shots from distance may be tired as the holders look to find a way of breaking through. They could also become more likely is desperation kicks in, should Spain find themselves ahead in the closing stages.
Fernandez has landed the 2+ shots bet in four of his last five games and had had four shots in two of those matches.
Here we can get odds of 2.2 and that seems more than fair.
World Cup 2026: Best Bets, Sunday July 19
Spain to win to nil @ 3.3
Fernandez over 1.5 shots @ 2.2
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