Andy Schooler brings you his thoughts on the 2026/27 Premier League season, which gets under way this weekend…
With the managerial merry-go-round having hit overdrive this summer – no fewer than nine of the 20 clubs have changed their boss – Arsenal look worthy favourites to successfully defend their crown.
Mikel Arteta represents real stability right now and he looks to have strengthened his squad by bringing in Bruno Guimaraes, a player of proven Premier League ability, as well as Christos Tzolis to replace Leandro Trossard – more on him later.
In contrast, Manchester City look weaker. They are about to lose a truly world-class player in Rodri, while key experience has left in the shape of Bernardo Silva and John Stones. Their attack still looks livewire but they’ve lacked solidity further back for a couple of years now, while you have to wonder what reaction there will be to the departure of a manager as successful as Pep Guardiola.
Manchester United finished third last season but they played the minimum of 40 games. That could be close to 60 this time around and it would be no surprise were there to be a regression and therefore more talk about the manager at some point in the forthcoming campaign – United were pretty much forced into giving Michael Carrick the job after once again appointing an ‘interim’ boss for a lengthy period of time. We all remember how it ended for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.
Liverpool have hired Andoni Iraola, which has plenty of potential after the fine job he did at Bournemouth. That said, the pressure at Anfield will be noticeably different and the Reds’ squad looks weaker than it has done for some time with an over-reliance of 35-year-old Virgil van Dijk at the back and an attack now missing Mo Salah for the first time in almost a decade.
Aston Villa continue to be hampered by the financial rules which see them keep having to sell their best players. In contrast, Chelsea and Spurs have strengthened their squads and should improve – last season’s disappointments now mean they have no European commitments and can go all-in on the league.
Still, the fact is Chelsea finished 33 points behind Arsenal last season, while Spurs trailing in 44 behind their local rivals. They have been spending money like it’s going out of fashion – overpaying for players in my opinion – but it’s still going to take one hell of a managerial performance from saviour Roberto de Zerbi to mould them quickly into a side capable of getting anywhere neat challenging for the title.
Defending the title is never easy but given the potential for all their rivals to be in some sort of transition phase, Arsenal can justify favouritism.
Who will get relegated from the Premier League?
Rewind 12 months and you’ll remember the theory that the gap between the Premier League and Championship had simply grown too big.
The 23/24 and 24/25 seasons had both seen all three promoted sides go straight back down and many were predicting it to happen again.
Sunderland and Leeds bucked the trend and deserve plenty of plaudits, especially the Black Cats, who qualified for Europe.
However, with hindsight you can see how it was done – Sunderland took a gamble of spending big and completely revamping their squad, while Leeds focused on adding physicality to theirs.
It’s tough to find a parallel when looking at Coventry, Ipswich and Hull (the latter have struggled to spend due to financial restrictions having previously overspent).
It’s not hard to see all three returning to the second tier straight away – a 4.0 chance with kwiff.
But if one of the established sides is to fall, who could it be?
The market already worries how Sunderland will cope with Europa League football, while it should be remembered they outperformed the data last season considerably – their expected points total was 42 whereas they actually won 54.
Fulham (4.4) look the other obvious candidates.
Marco Silva has kept the Cottagers well clear of the drop in recent seasons but that stability is now gone, as is last season’s key man, Harry Wilson, not to mention striker Raul Jimenez, midfielder Saša Lukić and defender Issa Diop.
They’ve taken something of a punt on former Real Madrid manager Álvaro Arbeloa, while signings so far have been unconvincing.
Which Premier League teams will exceed expectations?
No fewer than nine EPL teams will play in European competition this season and I fully expect that to have an effect on domestic affairs.
No midweek European games proved a boon for Manchester United last season and it’s not hard to see Chelsea and Spurs enjoying that scenario this time around.
Tottenham are spending big, although arguably too much on players who aren’t out of the top drawer. They also have a hug gap to make up having finished 17th two seasons running.
Preference would be to side with Chelsea, about whom there is plenty to like.
They look to have a quality coach now in Xabi Alonso, a man who lost just one game in the 2023/24 season at Bayer Leverkusen, scooping up trophies, and one who knows the Premier League from his time as a player at Liverpool.
Morgan Rogers and Maxence Lacroix looks good acquisitions and while it could be overplayed, you can see how the experience of Danny Welbeck and Jordan Henderson could boost a squad which has long been criticised for being too young and naïve.
It should also be remembered that Levi Colwill and Estevao were missing for large chunks of last season. The phrase ‘like new signings’ springs to mind.
In addition, big goal threats Cole Palmer and João Pedro should both be relatively fresh having missed out on the World Cup, so it’s not hard to see how Chelsea spring up the table from last season’s 10th.
The expected-goals data actually had them sixth – they can challenge for the top four.
Another side who were better data-wise than their final position suggested were Leeds and I’d also be keen to get them onside.
Their expected points total was 9.5 higher than the number they actually finished with – the xPts table putting them in eighth place.
With the likes of Bournemouth, Sunderland and Brighton all in European action this season, it’s far from impossible the Yorkshire side push on into the real top eight in 2026/27.
Their signings so far look good.
James Trafford is an upgrade in goal, Harry Wilson should add creativity and goals, while defender Tarik Muharemovic has made a good early impression during a pre-season which has included wins over Liverpool, RB Leipzig and Augsburg.
They could well be worth following the early weeks and in the longer-term markets.
Which Premier League teams will underperform?
Again, the European situation is worth considering when trying to answer this question.
Bournemouth, Sunderland, Brighton and Crystal Palace will all juggle domestic and continental campaigns and arguably none is set up well to deal with that.
Yes, Palace did handle it last year when winning the Conference League but they’ve stepped up a level now and they continue to sell their best players – Maxence Lacroix having joined Marc Guehi, Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise in leaving over the past two years.
They’ve also lost Oliver Glasner and there has to be a feeling that the club’s golden era, which saw three trophies won, is now over.
Pierre Sage is a gamble as the new boss given his lack of Premier League experience so if there’s a club worth taking on, it could well be Palace.
I also fear for Newcastle to some extent.
The paucity of the sides coming up means relegation appears unlikely but the Magpies could still be worth opposing in some shape or form, especially in the early weeks.
Like Palace, they’ve gone with a manager with no EPL experience in Matthias Jaissle, who arrives from the Saudi Pro League.
He arrives to find the squad shorn of its best players – Anthony Gordon, Bruno Guimaraes and Sandro Tonali have all left this summer – so it’s not hard to see them struggling.
Players to follow
While I’ve yet to complete my research into the granular detail of the player-props markets – I’m thinking shots, fouls etc – there are some angles worth a mention as we head into the new season.
In terms of goalscorers, Erling Haaland is the man they all have to beat again but locking up your money in an odds-on shot isn’t an approach I’d suggest given an injury could completely scupper his season.
Haaland’s team-mate Antoine Semenyo scored 17 EPL goals last season to earn a place in the top goalscorer market and a repeat looks a possibility.
The Ghanaian bagged 10 for Bournemouth before his January move and seven after moving to the Etihad. Overall, he notched 21 times in all competitions.
Rayan Cherki and Jeremy Doku will create chances for both Haaland and Semenyo, with the latter having that Mo Salah ability to both drift or dribble into shooting positions.
For those who like genuine out-and-out strikers, a couple of names could be worth considering using the ‘better for the run’ theory.
Igor Jesus got 16 goals in all competitions during his first season at Nottingham Forest and could kick on. Forest are without European football so if the Brazilian is able to hold down the centre-forward spot – he’ll be under pressure from Chris Wood – the potential is there for Forest to have a decent season.
Likewise, Thierno Barry now knows much more about the Premier League.
The Everton striker had some good games and also some absolute stinkers last season as David Moyes continually chopped and changed between him and Beto in the number nine role.
Between them the pair managed 17 league goals so you can see how one of them could put together a good campaign numbers-wise, if they can start regularly.
Barry, who bagged eight of the 17, has had a decent pre-season so may well be the man in possession come kick-off at the weekend.
One other player I think could go well at a big price in terms of the top scorer market is Yoane Wissa.
I was a big fan of his at Brentford and his move to Newcastle is yet to take off due to injury.
However, I’m convinced that a fully-fit Wissa will score goals at St James’s Park and while I’m not massively keen on Newcastle this season, a really proper struggle seems unlikely.
He bagged 19 and 12 in his last two seasons at Brentford and looks the likely starter at centre forward for his side.
Finally, there’s also a defender I’ll be keeping an eye on for goals this season and that’s Brighton new boy Luka Vuskovic, signed to replace Jan Paul van Hecke.
Still only 19, the Croatian is a massive aerial threat on set-pieces and he’s posted some highly impressive numbers already in his career.
Prior to being signed by Spurs last summer, he’d notched seven goals in 28 games in the Belgian league for Westerlo. Last season he was sent out on loan to Hamburg and duly scored six in 27 Bundesliga starts.
My advice is to keep an eye on anytime scorer prices in the early weeks of the season.
In terms of assists, Bruno Fernandes and the aforemtnioned Cherki are the men the bookies expect to lead the way this season.
That’s fair enough but how about Christos Tzolis?
The Greek is a player I’ve enjoyed watching in the Champions League for Club Brugge in recent years and last season he took his game to new levels, contributing a ridiculous 29 assists in all competitions for the Belgian club.
The Arsenal new boy, signed to replace Leandro Trossard, has already bagged four for his new club, including two in Sunday’s Community Shield win over Man City.
He’s playing for the champions and title favourites and could easily challenge for the Premier League’s ‘playmaker’ award which crowns the assists king.
Given I’m also keen on Chelsea and Spurs improving this season – I’ve outlined the potential for them to be challenging further up the table above – it’s also worth looking for an assister in their squads.
Step forward Mohammed Kudus at Tottenham.
He was one of several much-missed players in N17 last season due to injury but he still managed five Premier League assists in the 19 games he did play.
It should also be remembered that he had nine assists for West Ham in 2023/24 – six in the league – so I believe there’s obvious potential for him to get into double figures in the forthcoming campaign.
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