Carabao Cup Final Wembley Sunday 3pm
Sunday’s Carabao Cup Final at Wembley will be a replay of the 2022 Final when Liverpool beat Chelsea on penalties after a goalless 120 minutes.
The shootout saw a staggering 21 successful penalty kicks before Blues keeper Kepa Arrizabalaga blazed over the bar. Ironically Kepa had been brought on towards the end of extra-time by Thomas Tuchel, replacing Edouard Mendy, for his perceived penalty saving ability! Hardly an inspired substitution.
Seven of the last eight games between these two giants have ended in a draw – the Reds also won the 2022 FA Cup Final on penalties after another 0-0 draw – but I will be surprised if Liverpool do not gain a record tenth win in the competition and give Jurgen Klopp his first piece of silverware in what we now know is his last season in charge at Anfield.
Resourceful Reds
The teams met at Anfield just three weeks ago when the Reds were too strong for Mauricio Pochettino’s timid Blues winning 4-1 although referee Paul Tierney somehow saw fit to award the hosts a penalty while denying the visitors two stronger claims for spot kicks. Chris Kavanagh is in charge on Sunday; I think he will be in for a busy afternoon.
We will be told incessantly in the build up to the game about the Reds injury problems and they will likely be without Alisson, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Diego Jota and possibly Dominik Szoboszlai from their starting XI but they are hopeful of having Darwen Nunez, Mohammed Salah and Curtis Jones back from the side who simply blew Luton Town away in the second half midweek. They have the resources to cope.
Thiago Silva missed Chelsea’s last game – an excellent 1-1 draw at the Etihad – and I would expect Pochettino to go with the same starting XI as at Manchester City. Note if the Brazilian misses out then the Blues will have a totally different starting XI to the one that lost the 2022 Final.
Goals Galore
I expect to see Goals On Sunday and am slightly surprised to see the Reds as big as even money to win in 90 minutes. Both teams to score is 1.52 with kwiff and that too looks nap material.
The recommendation, however, is for Liverpool to win and both teams to score at 3.40 with kwiff. Liverpool have only kept two clean sheets in their eleven games in 2024 at Bournemouth in the league and at Arsenal, goodness knows how, in the FA Cup last month.
Klopp’s side have scored 21 goals in their last six games, however, and I expect them to have too much energy, desire, and pace for the north London side.
Brighton v Everton 3pm Saturday
In the Premier League I do think Brighton will avenge last season’s freakish 5-1 defeat at the Amex to Everton a result which went an awful long way to persevering the Blues long and proud record in top-flight English football.
Nathan Patterson was outstanding in the corresponding game last season for Everton, the Scottish international matching the excellent Kaoru Mitoma throughout. Patterson is somehow now, arguably, fourth choice right back at Goodison behind Ashley Young, Seamus Coleman and Ben Godfrey.
I thought Sean Dyche missed a trick with his negative team selection against a moderate Crystal Palace side down on their luck and missing key players at Goodison on Monday. I think that draw could prove crucial to both sides come the end of the season.
Seagulls Soaring
The Seagulls have scored ten times against beleaguered Sheffield United in two visits to Bramall Lane recently and scored four in their last home game against Palace. Roberto de Zerbi won’t say it publicly, but I think he will feel they owe Everton one after last season’s humbling defeat and kwiff’s 1.76 makes plenty of appeal.
Everton’s outstanding players this season are all defenders and that says much about the make-up of Dyche’s limited squad. As well as the 1.76 for the home win my eye was drawn to the treble of Brighton to win, Brighton to have the most corners and Everton to have the most cards. Godfrey is in for a torrid afternoon if the Blues play a flat back four and the 4.0 for the defender to be shown a card looks too big.
Manchester United v Fulham 3pm Saturday
Manchester United are unbeaten in 2024 and they have scored at least twice in all seven games since the turn of the year. This United side remained some way off the top three and their summer recruitment was a mixed bag at best – Mason Mount £60m? – but Eric ten Hag has stumbled across a winning combination – the return of Harry Maguire pivotal – and I expect them to have too much for a Fulham side without their excellent suspended midfielder Joao Palhinha.
The Cottagers have only won one of their last eight and not won at Old Trafford in over a decade. United are warm favorites and currently 1.52 with kwiff to maintain their challenge for a Champions League spot next term and they join Brighton in the acca. Bruno Fernandez has been in excellent form and is due a goal. The 2.85 for the Portuguese international to find the net during the 90 minutes looks fair.
Arsenal v Newcastle United 8pm Saturday
I am convinced Arsenal will finish third in the Premier League this term and the Gunners were brought back down to earth at Porto midweek when they failed to register a shot on target. Mikel Arteta’s side will likely turn that deficit around in the Champions League next month but first they need to take care of a Newcastle side who have been ravaged by injuries this term.
The Magpies won the reverse fixture at St James’ Park 1-0 back in November a game best remembered for Anthony Gordon’s controversial winner which somehow survived a triple VAR check despite an obvious foul by Joelinton on Gabriel in the build up to the goal.
The Gunners are warm favorites (1.33 with kwiff) and they are the third leg of the Premier League treble alongside Brighton and Manchester United pays £34.60 for a £10 stake.
Weekend Football Recommended Bets:
– Liverpool to win and both teams to score in the Carabao Cup Final at 3.40 with kwiff.
– Brighton, Man United & Arsenal win treble at 3.46 with kwiff.
– Brighton to win at 1.72 with kwiff.
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