Things are well and truly starting to get serious now at the Euros and on Monday we have the first real clash between two heavyweights, ahead of France v Belgium. Both sides arrived here as warm fancies for the tournament and it has to be seen as something as a surprise that neither were able to win their respective groups.
With the winner of this tie now facing a potential route to Berlin consisting of Portugal followed by Spain or Germany, there can be no more room for error if either one harbours genuine title ambitions. We’ve picked out five key talking points ahead of this crucial round of 16 tie, along with a couple of recommended bets.
France v Belgium: Who’s got more to prove?
Plenty have ear-marked this match-up as the tie of the round, though it has arrived earlier than anyone could have expected. Both sides surprisingly finished second in their respective groups, meaning that we’ve gone from this being a likely quarter final to a last 16 clash. It means that along with having a harder opening knockout tie, the route to Berlin is now an unforgiving one for both.
France arrived here as the biggest threat to Gareth Southgate’s England in the eyes of most but they’ve yet to click into shape, particularly in the forward areas. With the free-scoring pair of Germany and Spain now in their side of the bracket, it has to be a concern as we head towards the latter stages of the tournament.
Meanwhile, Belgium were expected to win their group fairly comfortably and while they have recovered well from their shock opening defeat to Slovakia, their presence on this side of the draw has to be seen as a failure. With Portugal likely to be waiting in the last eight, neither side can afford another lacklustre performance this evening.
France v Belgium: Goals at a premium
For two sides with such immense talent in their attacking departments, you would hope that this evening’s game would be a feast for the eyes, though neither side has dazzled thus far. Both sides have managed just two goals apiece in their three games in Germany – for all that Belgium have had three disallowed – and the fact that this is a tie between two near-neighbours gives added support to the feeling that this will be a cagey affair.
The last time these two met in a tournament (not counting the Nations League finals) was for France’s 1-0 victory in the 2018 World Cup Semi-Final, which proved to be a disciplined performance from a Didier Deschamps outfit that often favours pragmatism over attacking flair.
Belgium, meanwhile, still seem to be suffering with the identity crisis that comes with the burden of expectation of a ‘golden generation’. There have long been rumours that the set-up is fractious behind the scenes and they have once again performed like a collection of individuals rather than a team. In a round that has thus far been characterised by out-of-sorts performances, it seems likely to expect two line-ups that will set up to keep this tight and backing under 2.5 goals looks a fair option.
France v Belgium: The masked whinger?
Pinpointing the role of Kylian Mbappe feels somewhat obvious, though the broken nose he suffered in the opening game against Austria has made for a fascinating subplot. The 25-year-old missed his side’s draw against the Netherlands and while he found the back of the net with a penalty against Poland, he hasn’t been shy in talking about his discomfort in wearing a protective facial mask during games.
Mbappe’s goal against Poland was surprisingly his first ever goal at the Euros at the sixth attempt, but the fact that he is so crucial to his country’s fortunes has to be a concern. Plenty of ex pros have discussed the perils of having to play in a protective mask and while an Mbappe is surely better than none at all, it would have to be seen as an opportunity for Belgium should their star player be at any less than one hundred percent.
France v Belgium: Can Lukaku score?
It has proven to be another tumultuous fortnight or so for whoever is in charge of offloading Romelu Lukaku at Chelsea, as he’s once again fallen just short in the goalscoring department on the biggest stage. Like at Qatar 18 months ago, it was hoped that an impressive run of goalscoring form at a major tournament would be enough to persuade someone to part with enough cash to prise him from London, but he has yet to hit the net in Germany.
It certainly hasn’t been for the want of trying and it’s worth noting that if we lived in a world without VAR, we would be talking about a man who is heading into this game as the joint-top goalscorer in the tournament with three. Trying to pinpoint exactly where Lukaku sits in the echelons of world football is difficult, as he has an awful lot of qualities that you would want from a top striker.
His rather nomadic career to date is testament to the fact that it has never quite clicked for him at club level, though it is a different story on the international stage, where he has 85 goals for his country. With the emphasis likely to be on France to make things happen, this feels like a golden opportunity for Lukaku to make a belated impact on the tournament. With pace to burn, Belgium ought to be suited to a counter attacking style and it would be no surprise to see Lukaku score anytime.
France v Belgium: ‘The Golden Generation’?
Perhaps the biggest curse that can be placed on any team is to brand them as a ‘golden generation’ and it’s something which has certainly seemed to weigh heavy on the Belgians. With the likes of Eden Hazard and Vincent Kompany now retired and each of Lukaku, De Bruyne and Thibaut Courtois all into their thirties, it certainly feels as though the opportunity has passed for Belgium.
Their big chance was at the 2018 World Cup, when it was hoped that they would have learned from the disappointment of losing to Wales in the previous Euros and kick on from overcoming England in the group stage. Ironically it was Southgate’s men who would benefit from the easier run to the semi finals and Roberto Martinez’s men just seemed to have run out of steam having overcome a plucky Japan side in the round of 16 and overwhelmed Brazil in the last eight.
Some promising players have come through to replace those who have departed – none more so than Jeremy Doku – but there still seems to be a huge amount of expectation around Belgium. It’s worth remembering that they failed to qualify for a single tournament between 2002 and 2012, though it feels unlikely that we will be seeing them in Berlin in 12 days’ time.
France v Belgium: Selections
Back Romelu Lukaku to score anytime @ 3.10 with kwiff
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.63 with kwiff
By Nick Seddon
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