Nick Seddon delves deep into the very depths of international football to assess why Gibraltar v San Marino is worth watching midweek. Read on for his full preview!
Gibraltar v San Marino: Why it Matters
The international football window is a marmite prospect at the best of times, particularly in the absence of any qualifiers this autumn. Plenty will want to take a look at how England will shape up under new manager Lee Carsley, though they have some fairly uninspiring fixtures in the second tier of the UEFA Nations League.
Excitement can be at a premium, though European minnows San Marino caused quite a storm last month, when securing their first ever competitive victory against Liechtenstein after 34 years of hurt. The tiny republic surrounded by Italy is home to just 33,000 people and had been winless from 176 competitive games before last month’s miracle, with their only victory before that coming in a friendly against (you guessed it) Liechtenstein in 2004.
If you’re on football Twitter, it seems unlikely that you missed the wild celebrations that took place on the “San Marino fan account” – a profile dedicated to the minnows’ cause, which boasts more than 175,000 followers. San Marino have long been celebrated as the worst team in the world and sit dead last at 210 on the FIFA World Rankings. However, they have shown signs of improvement in recent years, even equalising against Denmark last year in a qualifier before eventually losing by just one goal.
With San Marino facing four games against European giants Gibraltar (twice), Andorra and Liechtenstein across the next two windows, we’ve taken a look at what they need to do if they are to chase down the likes of Anguilla, Bahamas and Guam in the rankings table.
Gibraltar v San Marino : FIFA Rankings
This isn’t something that is explained easily, as the FIFA Rankings are moulded together by a formula which is enough to bring even the most seasoned of mathematicians to tears. There are plenty of quirks within it, but FIFA uses an equation called the “Elo method” – P = Pbefore + I * (W – We) – which in layman’s terms essentially means that teams will earn points based on the relative strength of their opponents they get a result against, as well as the occasion that they are playing at.
For instance, you will earn more points for defeating Germany in a World Cup Final than you will by seeing off Andorra in a qualifier. At the same time, a victory for a minnow like Andorra against a top side would dramatically boost their ranking and greatly harm the giant in the process. Still following? Good!
Gibraltar v San Marino: Soaring San Marino
It feels simple enough to say that any side that has suffered a 20-year winless streak simply needs to start winning games to improve its fortunes, but geography and opportunity are two key things that are also working against San Marino. As a UEFA member, La Serenissima are guaranteed a good chunk of football each year, averaging around 10 games every 12 months.
The UEFA Nations League has certainly helped even the fixture list out a bit, but the majority of their matches will still come against vastly superior opposition. And while defeats to the likes of England or Germany aren’t going to cost them too dearly on the points front, the sheer number of games they play compared to other minnows makes it difficult to gain momentum.
Contesting fixtures on a regular basis means that San Marino are likely to lose points in every single international window, though there is a case to be made that they are not quite as hopeless as their ranking would tell you. The fact that they have been able to defeat Liechtenstein and secure draws against Caribbean sides Saint Lucia and Saint Kitts and Nevis in the last couple of years would suggest that they are perhaps hard done by with their ranking, but they are chasing nations that are far less active.
Gibraltar v San Marino: Oppositions
For example, Oceanian outfit Tonga is 11 places above San Marino, but they have played just nine times since 2022 compared to 26 for the European minnows. On top of this, they are consistently facing weaker opposition. Tonga have played just four games this year, with two games each against Samoa (185) and the Cook Islands (191), winning once and losing three. San Marino have played six games in that time (with three more scheduled) and while they have had a relatively kind year fixture wise, their opponents have still included Slovakia (42), Cyprus (123) and Moldova (149).
The combination of positive results in the Nations League as well as in shrewdly organised friendlies will help San Marino with its ranking, but it could be that it’s fellow European minnows Liechtenstein (203) who prove to be the most realistic side to catch in the long run.
Gibraltar v San Marino Preview
The fixture list really doesn’t get much kinder for San Marino, as they have been placed in a Nations League group alongside fellow minnows Liechtenstein (203) and Gibraltar (198). Gibraltar has only been a UEFA member since 2013 but they have achieved success that San Marino could only dream of since then, winning nine times and drawing on a further 11 occasions from 90 international fixtures.
This match would appear as a mismatch on that evidence, but the two sides have faced each other twice before in the 2020 renewal of the Nations League, with Gibraltar winning 1-0 on the rock before drawing 0-0 in Serravalle. The fact that the British territory could only draw 2-2 with Liechtenstein in September would suggest that San Marino have half a chance, though Gibraltar are unbeaten in three, defeating Andorra and picking up a hugely impressive 0-0 draw with Wales in June.
Those who revel in a bit of footballing romance would be forgiven for taking advantage of the 5.50 available with kwiff for a San Marino win, but next month’s return fixture feels like a better opportunity for that. Instead, it could be worth taking a chance on there being Under 1.5 Total Goals at 2.20 with kwiff, considering that both sides have scored just six goals between them in 2024.
Gibraltar v San Marino Selections
Back Under 1.5 Total Goals at 2.20 in Gibraltar v San Marino with kwiff
By Nick Seddon
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