Andy Schooler landed two winners in midweek, including a 5.2 shot; here’s his look at the weekend’s FA Cup Best Bets ahead of the third round proper’s start this evening.
FA Cup Best Bets: Magic of the Cup, 3rd Round Tips
I’ll be honest, I never look forward to previewing the early rounds of the FA Cup. For me, there’s simply too much doubt involved, with so much second-guessing going on about team news. With even managers of clubs in the lower divisions often shuffling their pack and prioritising league action, it can be hard to know if a team really represents good value or not – expect some big price changes once the line-ups are announced.
FA Cup Best Bets: Cheltenham v Leicester (Sat, 1215)
However, what third-round weekend does offer is the chance of a tasty winner or two – there will be upsets and shrewd punters will find a good betting angle. There may well be one in this game. Leicester have been very up and down this season in the Championship and boss Marti Cifuentes has plenty of critics.
Yet such is the nature of the second flight, the Foxes are actually only four points off the play-offs – and you can certainly foresee a number of team changes here. Cheltenham have the ability to take advantage. They may sit just 18th in League Two but that doesn’t tell the whole story. The Robins were rock bottom when Steve Cotterill took the reins at the end of September and since they’ve won eight of 15 in the league, beating high-flying Swindon and Walsall during that run.
FA Cup Best Bets: MK Dons v Oxford (Fri, 1930)
There’s an interesting match-up in this battle which catches the eye. MK Dons are one of the best teams in League Two in terms of attacking set-pieces – they’ve scored 14 goals from such scenarios, the third-best record in that division of 24. Meanwhile, struggling Championship side Oxford, currently without a manager, have one of the worst records in the second tier for defending set-plays – only rock-bottom Sheffield Wednesday have conceded more goals from them.
Given this, I think Dons defender Jack Sanders is worth a small interest in the anytime scorer market. The 6ft 4in centre-back scored three times last season and already has two in 17 league games this term. He’s had six shots in his last seven games (all headers) and Oxford’s recent defensive efforts mean he could well have more chances here. At 10.0, he’s worth a punt.
FA Cup Best Bets: Fulham v Boro (Sat, 1500)
Long-term readers will know I love a cards bet in the FA Cup – usually going low on the total-cards line. The average card count is considerably lower in this competition than for league games. Take a look at last year’s third-round ties. Twenty-four of the 32 saw under 3.5 cards, 20 had under 2.5 and a whopping eight – that’s 25% – produced none at all.
I’ve not got the full breakdown but you often see low-card games when there’s a divisional gap between the two teams and that’s what we have at Craven Cottage on Saturday. Another factor I look for when eyeing up low-card bets is the referee. Lewis Smith has been pretty lenient this season, averaging 3.5 cards per game in the Championship, although that figure drops to 3.27 across all competitions.
Notably, his FA Cup record is strong on this front – six of his nine previous ties in the competition have seen under 2.5 cards; three had no cards at all. Admittedly, Fulham are pretty low in the Premier League fair-play table but Boro’s disciplinary stats add weight to the low-cards theory. Sadly, the price has been cut into 1.57 – lower than I’d usually go – but I do expect it to win and certainly wouldn’t put anyone off using it in some sort of Bet Builder.
FA Cup Best Bets 2025/26: Third Round
Cheltenham to beat Leicester @ 4.75 with kwiff
Sanders anytime scorer v Oxford @ 10.0 with kwiff
Under 3.5 cards in Fulham v Boro @ 1.57 with kwiff
By Andy Schooler
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