Sunderland v Newcastle – 12.45pm, Saturday 6th January (ITV1)
It’s been just shy of eight years since we last saw a Tyne-Wear derby and Sunderland will be itching to get one over on neighbours and fierce rivals Newcastle when welcoming them to the Stadium of Light on Saturday.
The Black Cats got within two games of the top flight when missing out at the expense of Luton in the play-offs last season, and their victory over Preston on New Year’s Day moved them back into the top six ahead of this crunch-tie. Newcastle have shown over the last two years or so that they are a match for anyone on their day, but they are going through a tough patch at the moment having lost seven of their last eight games (although one of those defeats was on penalties to Chelsea).
With exits from the Champions League and the Carabao Cup still feeling pretty fresh and an injury list that’s showing no sign of easing up, Newcastle look vulnerable away from home at their biggest rivals – for all that they showed plenty of fight away at Liverpool on Monday. This feels like the sort of tie that could hinge on the opening goal, meaning that the 3.60 on offer with kwiff for a Sunderland victory could seem big should they score first.
Chances of an upset: 4/5
Blackburn Rovers v Cambridge United – 3pm, Saturday 6th January
Plenty will like the look of League One side Cambridge United, who knocked out Newcastle at this stage two seasons ago and travel to Blackburn on Saturday. To describe Blackburn’s form as ‘turgid’ would be an understatement, with their run of six defeats from their last eight games meaning they are now looking behind their shoulders at the relegation zone rather than at any potential play-off bid.
Scoring goals hasn’t been the problem for Rovers, who have Championship top scorer Sammie Szmodics at their disposal, but they are incredibly open at the back, with their tally of 48 goals conceded second only to rock bottom Rotherham United.
Cambridge are by no means flying themselves but have improved their form since parting company with Mark Bonner, picking up 10 points from their last 6 games, and will hope that the appointment of Neil Harris will be enough to keep them in the third tier. United’s away form leaves a lot to be desired however, arriving here winless in their last 11 games in all competitions, and kwiff’s 6.2 looks about right for an unlikely upset in Lancashire.
Chances of an upset: 1/5
Watford v Chesterfield – 3pm, Saturday 6th January
One of the most intriguing ties of the round involves two sides outside of the Premier League bubble, as in-form Championship side Watford face National League leaders Chesterfield.
The Hornets are normally on their third or fourth manager by now, but they have been rewarded for sticking with manager Valérien Ismaël despite a sticky start and sit just four points outside of the play-offs. Watford are comfortable 1.40 favourites to progress to the next round, but they face a Chesterfield side that are a Football League outfit in everything but name.
The Spireites can boast a squad with plenty of Football League quality and along with being on course to break Wrexham’s points record in the National League. They have also dispatched of higher opposition already this season, dumping out League One leaders Portsmouth in November.
Chesterfield manager Paul Cook has previous in the FA Cup, too, knocking out Manchester City with Wigan in 2018. Will Grigg was on target that night and with the striker at Cook’s disposal once again here, he will be confident of causing Watford plenty of problems at the weekend.
Chances of an upset: 3/5
Luton Town v Bolton Wanderers – 2pm, Sunday 7th January
One of the most popular starting points when upset hunting is to start with struggling Premier League sides facing in-form lower league opponents and Luton Town certainly tick that box.
The Hatters were routinely written off by almost everyone for Premier League survival at the beginning of the campaign and despite showing plenty of improvement in recent weeks, they begin the year inside the relegation places.
It remains to be seen whether Luton manager Rob Edwards will use this game as an opportunity to rotate his side, but it seems likely either way that they are in for a game against a Bolton side that are enjoying a fine season in League One.
Wanderers sit second in the league having won their last four games and manager Ian Evatt has shown time and time again that he takes cup games very seriously, winning the ‘Pizza Trophy’ last season, meaning that he’s highly likely to field his strongest side for this.
There’s certainly a case to be made for Luton prioritising the Premier League over any kind of cup run, meaning the 4.60 on offer with kwiff for an away victory looks very attractive indeed.
Chances of an upset: 5/5
Wigan Athletic v Manchester United – 8.15pm, Monday 8th January (ITV1)
One of the biggest ‘cupset’ artists of the last decade or so have been the 2013 FA Cup winners Wigan Athletic, who will be bidding to create some more history when they host Manchester United at the DW Stadium on Monday evening in an all-Lancashire affair.
Latics’ manager Shaun Maloney has previous against United, scoring the winning goal in Wigan’s only victory against the visitors in 2012, and he’ll be hoping for more of the same against a United side who have won just one of their last six games in all competitions over a busy festive period.
The absence of goalkeeper Andre Onana at the African Cup of Nations will give the hosts optimism for a potential upset, but this certainly isn’t the Wigan Athletic side of old. The League One side are very much in transition after several tumultuous years of ownership issues, with a young squad that’s rather stretched from injuries.
There have been glimpses of brilliance this term and it’s worth keeping an eye out for each of goalkeeper Sam Tickle, defender Charlie Hughes and winger Martial Godo, but history is very much against Wigan.
Indeed, in 19 competitive matches the aggregate score reads a staggering 65-5 in the favour of United – with the Red Devils successful in 18 of 19 meetings. Despite the hosts’ priced up at an attractive 8.5 for a win, it seems likely that the gulf in class will eventually show once again for Erik ten Hag’s men.
Chances of an upset 2/5
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By Nick Seddon
