Andy Schooler previews Sunday’s Carabao Cup final and gives his EFL Cup Final 2026 best bets ahead of Arsenal v Manchester City.
EFL Cup Final 2026: Carabao Cup Best Bets
It’s late March and Arsenal remain in the hunt for an unprecedented Quadruple – quite something given the criticism this team has received.
EFL Cup Final 2026 Best Bets: Preview
The first of four trophies could arrive at Wembley on Sunday and the Gunners are slight favourites to claim the Carabao Cup. Indeed, they are favourites for each of the four competitions. Mikel Arteta’s side are unbeaten in their last six meetings with City – quite a turnaround from what had gone before – although four of those matches have been drawn. What isn’t on their side though is the experience factor.
Having famously failed to get over the Premier League winning line in recent seasons, the Gunners have not won a trophy since 2020. In that time, City have scooped up nine of them. Knowing how to win these big matches is not something that should be under-estimated and it is this factor which makes City’s price look the more attractive to me. They are 2.9 to win in 90 minutes and even money to lift the trophy. It’s the latter that appeals the most.
City nullified Arsenal and were seconds away from beating them at the Emirates back in September – only a lapse in concentration and a brilliant finish from Gabriel Martinelli denied them – and I’m sure Pep Guardiola will have a plan in place to deal with their threats again. Admittedly, sometimes he’s come up with some maverick tactical ploys which simply haven’t worked – see 2021 Champions League final – but he knows this game could have ramifications that last well beyond Sunday evening. Winning will be a huge priority.
EFL Cup Final 2026 Best Bets: Goalscorers
With four of those six most recent meetings of the sides having seen under 2.5 goals (a 1.78 chance here), I’m not sure there’s huge value to be had in the goalscorer markets. However, if you do feel City have what it takes to break down the Premier League’s best defence, then there looks to be an angle. With Erling Haaland having scored just five goals in his last 19 appearances, it seems worth looking elsewhere to see who might hit the target for a side which usually manages to find the net. And I think the most attractive play is to back Antoine Semenyo.
He scored in seven of his first 12 appearances after singing from Bournemouth in January. Admittedly, the Ghana international hasn’t scored in his last four, although he has started only two of those games, being only a substitute for the midweek defeat to Real Madrid – a sign that he will start this contest. Semenyo is offered at 3.3 here.
EFL Cup Final 2026 Best Bets: Props
My best bets for the final come in the shot markets where I think there is some value to be found. Of course, all the usual team-news provisos apply – maybe I’m too old school but I find it really sad that teams won’t simply choose their strongest possible XI for a domestic cup final. However, I’m working on the assumption that those I’m about to mention will start at Wembley.
For Arsenal, Eberechi Eze banged home an absolute screamer on Wednesday against Leverkusen and I always feel that after one has flown in like that, the chances of the same player firing off further efforts in the next game rise. Not that Eze’s figures really need improvement. The England man has now struck 3+ shots in five of his last seven starts and while clearly City’s defence is stronger than most, I think he’s worth siding with. 3+ is 2.55 here but with that added defensive solidity taken into account, I’m happy to play 2+ at 1.96.
Moving onto Man City and it’s their defenders who appeal. Rayan Ait-Nouri was a player I successfully backed regularly for shots last season when he was at Wolves and now he’s getting regular game time for City at left-back. The Algerian has managed a shot in seven of his last 11 starts, including three of his last four. OK, maybe this might turn into something of a chess match with both sides afraid to push their full-backs too far forward.
EFL Cup Final 2026: On Your Head
However, with Nico O’Reilly likely to be playing down the left with him, Ait-Nouri will know he’s got some proper cover if he does go forward – expect some underlapping runs towards the box – and I feel he’s good value at 1.86 to have another shot in this match. Ait-Nouri’s fellow defender, Abdukodir Khusanov, has also been producing shots of late with 1+ landing in three of his last four matches.
I say shots but more specifically, I mean headers. Like many central defenders he’s become a threat from set-plays of late and with no Marc Guehi (four shots in his last two appearances) involved here due to his ineligibility, Khusanov will likely be sought out from dead balls. The Uzbek looks a good shout at odds-against for a shot.
EFL Cup Final 2026 Final Best Bets
Man City to lift the trophy @ 2.0 with kwiff
Semenyo 1+ goal @ 3.3 with kwiff
Eze over 1.5 shots @ 1.96 with kwiff
Ait-Nouri 1+ shot @ 1.86 with kwiff
Khusanov 1+ shot @ 2.2 with kwiff
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