After nailing three winners from four bets in England v India, Andy Schooler returns to preview Saturday’s T20 World Cup 2024 Final.
T20 World Cup 2024 Final: India v South Africa
Venue: Kensington Oval, Bridgetown, Barbados
Date/Time: Saturday June 29, 1530 BST
TV: Sky Sports Cricket and Main Event
It’s been a long wait for a trophy for both India and South Africa. In India’s case, it’s been 11 years – far too long for their fanbase – although that’s nothing compared to the Proteas, whose only victory at this level came back in 1998. I say ‘this level’ but both of those triumphs came in the Champions Trophy, not the 20 or 50-over World Cup events – South Africa have actually never won on this stage.
At least they ended their semi-final hoodoo the other day. In this game, India will be wary of their poor record in recent finals. Both teams were dominant in their semi-finals, albeit South Africa were probably fortunate in the sense they were asked to bowl first on a pitch which surprised many.
T20 World Cup 2024 Final: Saffers Underdogs
Here in Barbados, the toss winner will likely bat – the team batting first was won 19 of 30 completed T20Is in Bridgetown. There should be truer bounce here than at either of the SF venues, which were much criticised, and we should see plenty of runs. Given that pitch bias, if South Africa bat first, they could be a spot of value – at time of writing they are 2.35.
They’ve won three of the last four T20Is against India, including a key game at the last World Cup. They are yet to play in Barbados in this tournament though which could be a disadvantage. India were convincing winners in their only contest (against Afghanistan) here and look to have the more rounded side – they are not reliant on one or two star performers.
T20 World Cup 2024 Final: Yadav to Shine
With the ball, both seam and spin have produced the goods, while the batters, bar Virat Kohli, have delivered. The one I like for India top bat is Suryakumar Yadav at 4.0. He’s made consistent contributions from number four with his last five scores being 47-31-6-53-50. He’s won the top-bat prize in two of those games.
‘SKY’ also has an outstanding record against South Africa in this format his run make-ups being 100-56-68-8-61-50. All the half-centuries in there have been scored at a strike rate above 150. Suryakumar could also be a key figure in the total sixes market where I’m happy to go over the 13.5 line.
Looking at matches featuring full members at Bridgetown in this tournament, we find make-ups of 12-14-14-21-12. With Rohit Sharma, Suryakumar and Hardik Pandya always looking to take the bowlers on, India have posted six totals – on their own – of 8-15-13-7 since the start of the Super 8s stage. On a what should be a decent batting track, over 13.5 looks the way to go.
T20 World Cup 2024 Final: Terrific Tristan
Finally, I’m going to recycle a bet from the semi-finals which didn’t really get a chance given Afghanistan were skittled for just 56. Tristan Stubbs is again a big price given he batted at four in the final Super 8s game against West Indies, top-scoring with 29. He showed what a good player of spin he is during the recent Indian Premier League and so shouldn’t be fazed by facing Axar Patel and Kuldeep Yadav in the middle overs. A price of 10.5 just looks wrong and worth backing.
T20 World Cup 2024 Final: Saturday June 29 Best Bets
Suryakumar Yadav India top batter @ 4.0 with kwiff
Total sixes over 13.5 @ 1.75 with kwiff
Tristan Stubbs South Africa top batter @ 10.5 with kwiff
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