Dave Massey is back with his Best Bets for Saturday at Newmarket.
13:22 Newmarket – “Jersey Lily” Fillies Nursery 7f
I’m quite keen on one here and I’m hoping the price holds up on Marsala, as she has a better chance than the early 20/1 the books make her.
The case revolves around her Newbury debut where she finished a 3¾ length fourth to Etonnante, a very good debut when you consider how the race has worked out. Third home Avalon Queen won a quality maiden at Glorious Goodwood on her next start, second home Topaz has won a Listed contest out in Italy after winning a maiden at Salisbury and winner Nuit D’Ecair was beaten half a length in the G3 Sweet Solera and then third in the Listed Dick Poole at Salisbury. It all looks very strong form.
Two runs for Marsala since then, however, have been lesser efforts; slowly away at Kempton on her next start, she never got into the contest, merely plugging on at one pace for a midfield finish, and only third of four at Haydock last time although heavy ground there may simply have been the excuse. Regardless, back on better ground, and a mark of just 74 to go to work in nurseries with, gives her every chance of bouncing back. Half-brother Palmar Bay (same connections) kept improving and the hope is she will too.
15:40 Newmarket – bet365 Cambridgeshire 1m1f
Am I allowed three darts at the Cambridgeshire? I think I am when one is a 66 chance. My column, my rules. Plenty out there on the old socials tipping up odds-on pokes if that’s not your thing….;-)
I’ll start with the most obvious of the trio. Pathein went straight in the notebook for this after his sixth to Thunder Run at Doncaster last time out, a run I think he probably needed after the best part of two months off. He travelled so sweetly into it you felt he had to take a hand in the finish, but he found a pocket of trouble a furlong out and never got the room he needed. He finished with running left in him and for all he may not have won (although that isn’t certain) a place was certainly up for grabs. He’s still unexposed, having only had the six starts, and the booking of William Buick can only be a positive. As long as a middle draw doesn’t inconvenience him, I think he has to go close.
And to the two that are bigger prices. Principality is more exposed than most but simply doesn’t know how to run a bad race, and I’ve an idea this 9f might be right up his street, given it took him all of Nottingham’s 1m and half a furlong to get on top of Helm Rock there back in May and similarly was staying on over Epsom’s extended mile next time out. A winner on the July course in August, he was fifth over a mile here last November but “won” his group that raced up the middle, and by some way, so he’ll act fine on the track.
Salam Dubawi is going to have to race from a couple of pounds out of the handicap but if the low draws are holding sway again this year (as they did last year) then Olivia Tubb might be able to pop him out from stall 4 and grab the far rail to make her way home. He’s been shaping a lot better than the bare result recently, going off too quick at York two starts ago and last time out at Ayr, travelled as well as anything but the heavy ground blunted her finishing effort. Interesting to note his win this season came at 9f at Hamilton, so conditions here should be ideal, and at a huge price, I have to have him onside in case he makes all…
13:35 Haydock – William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap 1m
And if Principality is going to be one of my fancies for the Cambridgeshire, it makes some sense to go with Looka here, who beat Principality half a length at Salisbury last time out and a 3lb rise for that looks more than fair to me. That was just his second start of the season, he looks like he’s been waiting for a bit of dig in the ground (as there was at Salisbury) and for all it’ll dry back a bit at Haydock by Saturday, there should still be some juice in the ground, and with no real pace in the race, he should get the front-runners role again without too much fuss.
By Dave Massey
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