Andy Schooler previews the third Test between England and Pakistan, which starts at Edgbaston on Wednesday.
Venue: Edgbaston, Birmingham, England
Date/Time: Friday September 9, 1100 BST (5 days)
TV: Sky Sports Cricket
So, what to make of this match and, specifically, Pakistan’s approach to it?
Two down in a three-match series, they’ve taken the wild decision to replace half their squad mid-tour, ditching the man who captained the side in the opening Test – Salman Ali Agha – along with six others. Head coach Sarfaraz Ahmed has also been axed.
Five uncapped players are among those called up as replacements and it doesn’t take a genius to suggest that throwing inexperienced cricketers into vastly alien conditions may not be enough to stop the rot which has now seen them lose 15 of their last 20 Tests.
Pakistan have been thrashed in both games on this tour so far, particularly struggling with the bat – they are yet to go beyond 200 in any innings.
Perhaps the Edgbaston pitch, which tends to last and be a good surface to chase on, will aid them on that front. That said, there have been a number of low scores here in the County Championship this season.
The one shining light for the tourists has been Mohammad Abbas, who has 10 wickets so far and looks a shoo-in for Pakistan’s player of the series.
Abbas was a winner for this column in the top-bowler market at Lord’s and looks likely to take this market again.
However, I can’t be backing people in that market at 2.6, especially when I’m intrigued to see how Ubaid Shah performs – his pace has been lauded by many in Pakistani circles.
As for England, will they be tempted to make changes for what is essentially a dead rubber?
Their pace bowling attack has performed well, albeit against limited opposition, but three of the four are due in white-ball action in the days which follow this game, so it must be tempting to give at least one of them a rest. Playing a spinner – Shoaib Bashir – at Edgbaston is clearly an option, too.
Ollie Robinson is the one who isn’t in the ODI or T20I squads so the man who has already scooped two player-of-the-match awards in the series looks likely to play here.
He’s favourite in that player-of-the-match market again but it’s a market in which ‘voter fatigue’ can play a part – the adjudicators will only keep giving it to the same player for so long being the theory.
Of course, Robinson could force their hand with another outstanding display but it’s not like there aren’t other candidates.
His fellow bowlers are the obvious ones but it might be worth taking a punt on a long shot.
Jordan Cox has dug in well in this series with some proper Test-match batting.
Two half-centuries so far have suggested a maiden Test ton isn’t far away and a potentially kinder Edgbaston pitch – plus and under-prepared Pakistani attack – could help deliver that.
The player-of-the-match award has gone to a batter in three of their last four Edgbaston Tests and Cox might be worth a few beans at 12/1.
Some will wonder why Joe Root hasn’t been mentioned yet – his Edgbaston average is up at a highly impressive 63.2.
However, the new England captain has not had the best of summers. There’s been no century yet, while he’s been out lbw a lot, something he has blamed on the seam of the Dukes ball.
Frankly, I don’t want to back Root at fairly short prices but neither am I looking to oppose him.
That’s not the case with Emilio Gay, who hasn’t really impressed in his five Tests to date – the opener is averaging just 23.5.
That’s actually his first-innings runs line here and I’ll tentatively go under that mark.
Five of his nine scores so far have landed this bet; indeed those five have all seen Gay fall for 11 or fewer.
With Abbas and possibly Shah taking the new ball, Gay should be tested early on and I’m not convinced he’ll pass it.
England v Pakistan 3rd Test 2026: Best Bets
Cox to be player of the match @ 12.0 with kwiff
Gay under 23.5 runs (1st inns) @ 1.8 with kwiff
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