Andy Schooler takes a statistical look at the main contenders for the men’s singles title at the 2026 US Open, which starts on Sunday.
Carlos Alcaraz
Odds: 2.45
World ranking (as of August 24): 3
Tournament history: W-2R-SF-W-QF
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 7 times
Hardcourt form: None
The defending champion looks a very opposable favourite 12 months on from his second New York success. Alcaraz has not played since April due to a wrist injury and his decision to make his comeback in best-of-five-sets tennis looks an odd one. Yes, the Spaniard already looks set to go down as one of the greats, but surely he has little chance of winning a Grand Slam after so long on the sidelines. For me, it’s simply a case of when Alcaraz loses and short prices are to be avoided at all costs.
Alex Zverev
Odds: 3.65
World ranking: 2
Tournament history: 3R-QF-QF-SF-RU-4R-3R-2R-2R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, French Open 2026
Hardcourt form: L16 Cincinnati, L64 Montreal
Zverev finally got the Grand Slam monkey off his back at this year’s French Open, ensuring he will not be remembered as the best player never to win a major. He backed that up by reaching the Wimbledon final but his form has slipped since then with some disappointing results at the recent Masters 1000 events. He hasn’t got a great record here either – just one final and one semi-final from 10 previous visits. Possesses a big serve and arguably the best backhand in the game but there look more likely winners.
Novak Djokovic
Odds: 7.2
World ranking: 5
Tournament history: SF-3R-W-RU-4R-4R-W-RU-W-SF-RU-RU-W-RU-SF-SF-RU-3R-3R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 24 times
Hardcourt form: L64 Cincinnati
The 2026 US Open marks three years since Djokovic’s 24th and most recent Grand Slam title. Since then, the Serb has been remarkably consistent in the majors, reaching the semis or better at eight of 11. That would be excellent for anyone else; but for the GOAT it’s not enough. He craves one more title, which would take him past Margaret Court and set a new Grand Slam record. You can argue this is his best chance. Just before leaving New York 12 months ago, Djokovic spoke about the difficulty of beating the considerably younger Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner in a best-of-five-sets tournament. However, with Sinner absent this year and Alcaraz rusty after four months on the sidelines, the likelihood is Djokovic will not have to face either of them if he is able to produce another deep run. The key may be not expending too much energy in the early rounds. If Djokovic manages that, he may be able to claim that one final piece in his remarkable career jigsaw.
Ben Shelton
Odds: 7.65
World ranking: 9
Tournament history: 3R-3R-SF-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Semi-finals, Australian Open 2025 & US Open 2023
Hardcourt form: L64 Cincinnati, W Montreal, QF Washington
Shelton was very impressive at the Montreal Masters earlier this month, dropping his serve only three times in six matches as he lifted the trophy. In three of those contests, he didn’t even face a break point. However, perhaps what was most noteworthy were his efforts on return – normally a relative weakness. Shelton was able to consistently break serve, with his ground game looking in fine nick. He can be forgiven an early exit in Cincinnati given he played there just a couple of days after the Montreal final. If he is able to replicate his Montreal displays in New York, he will be a contender for the title.
Taylor Fritz
Odds: 11.7
World ranking: 10
Tournament history: QF-RU-QF-1R-2R-3R-1R-3R-2R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Runner-up, US Open 2024
Hardcourt form: QF Cincinnati, L64 Montreal, W Washington
Fritz made the final here two years ago. I’d made a return unlikely but not impossible. The American began the hardcourt swing with victory in Washington but then disappointed in Montreal and Cincinnati. Most off-putting for me if his long-standing problem with knee tendinitis. It’s been a regular theme over the past year and reared its head again at Wimbledon. You have to wonder whether best-of-five tennis on these Laykold hardcourts will prove troublesome again. If fully fit, Fritz does have the serve and forehand power to compete with virtually anyone on the tour, but I wouldn’t want to be backing him myself.
Best of the rest
There haven’t been many big-priced winners of the men’s Grand Slams in the last 25 years but given some of the doubts surrounding the market leaders, I would not be surprised to see an outsider lifting the trophy on September 13.
It might pay to back one of the tour’s rising stars in New York and there is none brighter right now than Rafael Jodar (11.7).
You may think that being named Rafael would be something of a curse, following in the wake of a certain Mr Nadal, but Jodar has looked completely unfazed by comparisons and is already looking likely to make his own piece of history.
Ranked outside the top 100 as recently as March, the 19-year-old could crack the top 10 at the US Open. If he does so he will become the fastest riser to the top 10 from outside the top 100 since Boris Becker.
There are already few weaknesses in the Spaniard’s game and he’s gone 10-3 in the warm-up tournaments, reaching the Washington final and the semis of the Montreal Masters.
Arthur Fils (15.2) has arguably been even more impressive, claiming his first Masters 1000 title with victory in Cincinnati.
He’s still only 22 but has perhaps fallen a little behind schedule due to a host of injury issues. However, he was excellent on hardcourts earlier in the season and appears to have rediscovered that form at just the right time.
My concern for both men would be their relative lack of experience of best-of-five tennis and how they will back up if forced into a lengthy match (or two) in what are usually pretty testing conditions – New York is known for its heat and humidity at this time of year.
You can have fewer worries on that front when it comes to Frances Tiafoe (30.0), who has proved he has the physical and mental qualities required for Grand Slam tennis.
He’s been a great fighter, especially in front of the US Open crowd. He’s spoken before about the added motivation he gets playing in such an atmosphere with the patriotic support and that’s reflected in his tournament record with two semi-finals and one quarter-final reached in his last four visits.
Importantly, Tiafoe is in great form having just reached the final in Cincinnati, so another deep run would not surprise, especially if he gets a bit of luck in Thursday’s draw.
Finally, it’s worth giving Brandon Nakashima (45.0) a mention.
He’s not the best-known home hope but there’s an argument to be made that he could be the host nation’s best in 2026.
No-one has won as many matches across the summer hardcourt season so far than Nakashima, who reached the semis in Washington and Cincinnati, and the final in Montreal.
Three top-10 wins were included in that run, one based on a strong serve – he’s ranked seventh for service games won this season and fourth for first-serve points won.
If it plays quick in New York (it’s usually slick but not top-level fast), then Nakashima has to be considered at a tasty price.
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