Having successfully tipped up the Kiwis to win the second Test, Andy Schooler previews the England v New Zealand test series decider, which starts at Trent Bridge on Thursday.
England v New Zealand 2026: 3rd Test Preview
Venue: Trent Bridge, Nottingham, England
Date/Time: Thursday June 25, 1100 BST (5 days)
TV: Sky Sports Cricket
It was no great surprise to see an inexperienced England side well beaten by New Zealand at The Oval. A chaotic lead-in saw captain Ben Stokes and paceman Gus Atkinson both suspended after they breached a team curfew, Ollie Robinson injured and wicketkeeper Jamie Smith depart the squad on paternity leave.
But the first Test line-up will essentially return here – 10 of that winning side will play, with Robinson left out at the expense of Jofra Archer. Spinner Shoaib Bashir returns having been left out at The Oval. That now makes England a bet at 1.8. A reminder, you were getting only 1.7 ahead of the series opener at Lord’s. They were the better side in that ball-dominated match at Headquarters when all-rounder Stokes gave the team a more balanced look.
England v New Zealand: Trent Bridge
One suspects the bowlers will have to work considerably harder in Nottingham, which tends to be more of a batter’s pitch. Four of the last eight sides to bat first have made 400+, while six have reached at least 329. Both these nations went well past 500 when they last met here in 2022. England won that match; indeed they’ve won the last four here against the Black Caps, whose sole Trent Bridge victory came in 1986.
The brutally hot weather forecast is also going to have a say in how this match plays out – there seem likely to be some weary bowlers around as innings wear on. My approach to the sub-markets will be to look for batters who could take advantage of that by coming in down the order, while looking to oppose those facing the fresh bowlers with the new ball. In the former category, I could have another try with Tom Blundell in the top-bat market but I’m loathe to do that having already put him up twice – he made a half-century and beat those above him at The Oval but was then usurped by Glenn Phillips.
England v New Zealand: Dare to Daryl
Instead, I’m going to back Daryl Mitchell to go over his runs line, which is set at 28.5. He batted well at The Oval, making scores of 44 and 68, and will have great memories of this ground having racked up 190 and 62 not out in that 2022 defeat. He’ll be coming in at number five when there could be some fatigued bowlers coming in, so playing the overs looks worthwhile to me.
On England’s side, Joe Root has a great record at Trent Bridge – five tons in nine Tests and an average of 68.28. While he’s at four, Root, happy to be shorn of the captaincy once more, could well be the wall that tires the New Zealand bowlers out and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him for another century in the first innings. He makes the cut as a bigger-priced selection.
In terms of the potential for early wickets, I’m ready to oppose the New Zealand openers – just as we did successfully in that first Test. The Black Caps are yet to have an opening partnership above 14 in the series, while they also managed only four in their warm-up Test in Ireland. The opening stand line is set at 25.5 here and I’ll happily go under that.
England v New Zealand: Up Jacob’s Creek
As for England, I think Jacob Bethell would be coming under real pressure were it not for the headline making (for the wrong reasons) of his team-mates. The number three, who came into this series woefully short of red-ball cricket after a spell at the IPL, looks to be living off his ton in the finals Ashes Test of the winter which is very much an outlier in his recent data. Bethell has failed to make double figures in six of his last 10 Test innings and hasn’t been past 14 in this series. Overall, eight of his last 10 scores have gone under 24.5 runs, which is his runs line for this game. Go low again is the advice.
England v New Zealand 3rd Test 2026: Best Bets
England to beat New Zealand @ 1.8 with kwiff
Mitchell over 28.5 runs (1st inns) @ 1.8 with kwiff
Root to score century (1st inns) @ 4.55 with kwiff
NZ total at 1st dismissal under 25.5 runs @ 1.8 with kwiff
Bethell under 24.5 runs (1st inns) @ 1.8 with kwiff
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