Andy Schooler landed two winners from three bets in his first-leg preview of the Champions League quarter-finals. Check out what he’s backing for this week’s second legs…
Champions League Quarter-Finals: Leg 2 Best Bets
There are some interesting prices around about the Champions League second legs this week. PSG are underdogs at Anfield despite utterly dominating Liverpool last week, while it’s very hard to be confident about Arsenal at 1.4 in any match at the moment. But, for me, the one worth taking is the 3.5 about Atletico Madrid winning at home to Barcelona.
Despite the hosts being 2-0 up from the first leg, I don’t see them defending this out. This isn’t the team of Diego Godon and Juanfran; they simply aren’t the defensive colossus of a decade ago. We saw that last week with Barcelona still able to dominate the ball for periods, even following the dismissal of Pau Cubarsi, who is now suspended here.
Champions League Best Bets: Atletico v Barcelona
They may well have to soak up pressure again here as Barca clearly need to come out and attack. But that will also likely create problems for the visitors, who are also not defensively sound enough. It was their big weakness in this competition last year – Inter Milan making them pay in a ding-dong semi-final – and could well be again here.
They insist on playing a high line and it would be no surprise to see Atletico afforded chances by getting in behind. The hosts will certainly look to break whenever possible and in Julian Alvarez they have a finisher very much capable of capitalising. I’m expecting goals here. It could well be another end-to-end battle and the longer Barca remain behind on aggregate, the more they will have to pile forward. I don’t think they will be good enough to keep the hosts out and so Atleti look a tempting price to me.
Champions League Best Bets: Liverpool v PSG
PSG battered Liverpool last week and really should be more than two goals up heading to Anfield. The officials hardly helped on that front, denying them what looked a stonewall penalty in the dying minutes. Mentally, that’s a potential concern here as we’ve seen time and again over the years how Liverpool have delivered comebacks under the Anfield lights, where opposition teams have often looked like rabbits in the headlights.
I still struggle to comprehend how the Messi-led Barcelona cowered here seven years ago, blowing a 3-0 first-leg lead. The difference now, though, is the quality of Liverpool – all season they’ve looked far from the level of that Champions League-winning side – and I really would not be surprised to see PSG dominate again. They were excellent last week and regularly cut through the Reds’ defence, despite Arne Slot attempting to bolster his back line with a five-at-the-back policy, one he surely needs to ditch here given the required goals.
Among the star turns was Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, who scored for the sixth time in his last six starts for club and country last week. He now has eight Champions League goals this season and has scored in his last four UCL matches. The Georgian has the pace and trickery to punish Liverpool on the break, something PSG will surely bid to do, and he looks a tasty price to find the net again here.
Champions League Quarter-Finals: Bayern v R Madrid
Bayern gained a 2-1 first-leg advantage in an excellent game in Bernabeu last week but this tie is not done and dusted yet. Real probably felt aggrieved to lose given the amount of good chances they created but they found veteran keeper Manuel Neuer in outstanding form for Bayern.
It was a performance which will certainly give them hope of turning things around in the Allianz Arena, although doing so will clearly be tough. Bayern have scored in every game this season so the likelihood is Real are going to need to bag at least two to stand any chance of reaching the semis. Given the attacking talent they have at their disposal, that’s far from impossible though and I can see this being another goal-filled game.
Michael Olise was excellent for Bayern, who have a 49-goal striker in Harry Kane, while Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior caused plenty of problems for the Germans’ defence last week. One player who seems permanently underrated at Real is midfielder Federico Valverde. The Uruguayan has been among the goals of late – and landed a tasty winner for this column against Manchester City in the last round.
However, he’s also now up to 12 assists for the season and that’s the bet I’m interested here. He carved out a couple of decent chances in last week’s first leg with his through balls and if Real are to mount a comeback, I think he’ll be a key man. With the competition’s leading scorer Mbappe and Vini Jr ahead of him, north of 5/1 about an assist in a game in which Real probably need to score 2+ goals looks worth an interest.
Champions League Quarter-Finals Best Bets
Atletico Madrid to beat Barcelona @ 3.5 with kwiff
Kvaratskhelia anytime scorer @ 2.8 with kwiff
Federico Valverde 1+ assist @ 6.05 with kwiff
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