The Ashes series begins in the early hours of Friday – Andy Schooler previews the much-anticipated first Test in Perth and brings you his best bets.
The Ashes 2025/2026: Huge 1st Test Preview
Venue: Optus Stadium, Perth, Australia
Date/Time: Friday November 21, 0220 GMT (5 days)
TV: TNT Sports 1
Let’s start by setting the scene. This has billed as one of the closest-to-call Ashes series of recent times, certainly in Australia where England haven’t won a Test match since the famous, Alastair Cook-inspired 2010/11 tour. An Australian era appears to be coming an end with the vast majority of their side made up by a bunch of 30-somethings. That said, they’ve lost only two Tests since the 2023 Ashes, winning 14, while they’ve been defeated in just one of their last nine series on home soil.
England, who have won 12 Tests and lost 10 in the same period, will bring their attacking ‘Bazball’ brand of cricket to Australia for the first time. Their batters tend to score quickly – or not much at all – while they’ve picked a pace-led bowling attack for this tour. It is, however, largely inexperienced in Aussie conditions. The series opens, unusually, in Perth. England have a poor record in Western Australia, winning there only once in 14 attempts.
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However, all of those matches took place at the WACA; this will be their first Test at the new Optus Stadium, which opened in 2018. Trends are hard to come by given only five Test matches have taken place at the ground but early evidence suggests it gets easier to bat as the game wears on. All five matches have been won by the team which won the toss. On each occasion, they batted first, which isn’t something England skipper Ben Stokes tends to do.
The WACA was renowned for offering pace and bounce to the bowlers and data from those previous matches suggests the ball gets up just as much at the Optus. Pitch curator Isaac McDonald says he expects the drop-in surface to offer those elements again here which should encourage England’s battery of pacemen – spinner Shoaib Bashir looks the member of the 12-man squad to miss out, allowing Jofra Archer, Mark Wood, Gus Atkinson and Brydon Carse all to play.
While backing England in Australia does require something of a leap of faith given their record over the last 15 years, I’m ready to side with them here. Perth looks a good venue for their current team, while Australia arrive here without two of their three feared pacemen. Captain Pat Cummins is out, along with Josh Hazlewood, which is a massive blow. Mitchell Starc remains and will be joined by Scott Boland and debutant Brendan Doggett.
Boland admittedly has a superb average of just 12.63 in Australia – who can forget his debut 6-7 against England in 2021? – but there’s no doubt the hosts are a weaker side without their injured duo. Circumstances have given England an improved chance of victory and things may get harder going forward, so let’s take this chance to get with the tourists.
The Ashes: Best Bets
In the sub-markets, I’m going to oppose Usman Khawaja at the top of the Australian batting order. He’ll turn 39 next month and is one of several Aussies who will soon be leaving the Test arena. Khawaja will be aiming to go out with a bang but is that really likely? Since scoring a double-hundred in Sri Lanka at the start of this year, he’s failed to reach 50 in 10 Test innings.
While he has made a few runs for Queensland domestically, it’s notable that Khawaja’s Optus average of 36.37 is well down on his career figure which sits above 43. India’s bowlers ran amok in the first innings of the last Test played on this ground and England’s pace attack has the potential to do something similar and could certainly strike early. Khawaja’s first-innings runs line is set at 28.5 and I’m happy to go under that. Eight of his last 10 scores have landed the unders.
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Finally, let’s also back Marnus Labuschagne for top Australian bat. He’s back in the fold after a dip in form. However, domestic form suggests he’s ready to deliver the big Test scores which followers were raving about a few years ago. Labuschagne has scored five tons in his last eight innings for Queensland, while he should also be happy to be returning to Perth. In four Tests here, Labuschagne has scored three hundreds and one fifty, averaging a whopping 74.85.
1st Ashes Test 2025/26: Best Bets
England to win the 1st Test @ 2.3 with kwiff
Khawaja under 28.5 runs (1st inns) @ 1.8 with kwiff
Labuschagne Top Aus Batsman @ 4.35 with kwiff
By Andy Schooler
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