Andy Schooler looks towards the US Open as he previews the summer hardcourt season in his latest exclusive Futureproof column for kwiff readers.
Futureproof with Andy Schooler: Hardcourt Season Preview 2025
So, we have a new Wimbledon champion, albeit one who was rather predictable. Jannik Sinner started as second favourite and it was no surprise to see the Italian and Carlos Alcaraz contest the final. That duopoly has now claimed the last seven Grand Slam titles – Novak Djokovic was the last ‘outsider’ to win one, at the 2023 US Open.
Hardcourt Season: All Roads Lead to New York
The road to New York in 2025 started this week when players hit Los Cabos to get the North American summer hardcourt season under way. Washington, Toronto, Cincinnati and Winston-Salem await before the final Slam of the season. For punters seeking big prices, the domination of two players can be pretty depressing and, frankly, it would take a brave man to predict both Sinner and Alcaraz will be beaten at Flushing Meadows.
The chance of an upset probably increases at some of the warm-up events – the Big Two are due to compete in Masters 1000 level in Toronto and Cincinnati. Three of the last six combined winners of those tournaments have been Alexei Popyrin, Borna Coric and Pablo Carreno Busta, so surprises can – and do – happen. There will also be opportunities for match bets so let’s consider some players who could make an impact over the next six weeks or so – and those who may flop.
Hardcourt Season 2025: Stars and Stripes
I’ll start by highlighting something that is long entrenched in this part of the season – that the American players tend to shine. For much of the last 20 years, the US stars have been relatively poor travellers, often enjoying their best results in their homeland. Clearly, it’s a generalisation but across a large sample size, it’s certainly true.
The poster boy for this trait is Frances Tiafoe. Two of his three ATP titles have been won in the USA, while five of his 10 finals have been reached there. The 27-year-old is also someone who has openly admitted that the buzz he gets playing at the US Open cannot be replicated elsewhere and his results there have outperformed anything he’s managed at the other Slams. In the last three seasons, he’s gone SF-QF-SF in New York – that’s the sort of course form which may see some interest in his US Open odds of 47.0.
Hardcourt Season 2025: Flourishing Fritz
Taylor Fritz is another who fits the bill – four of 10 titles have come in North America, plus nine of 18 finals. He reached the US Open final last season and has now gone to at least the quarter-finals in five of his last eight Slams. His serve, long a weapon, was in good working order at Wimbledon where he really should have taken Alcaraz into a final set in their semi-final. You could argue Fritz’s level is the closest to the Big Two’s right now – he’s 20.8 to go one better in New York this year.
Hardcourt Season 2025: Ones to Watch
Ben Shelton was another American who played well at Wimbledon and will look to translate that form to the hardcourts, while Brandon Nakashima is often worth following in matches at this time of the season. All three of his ATP finals have come during the summer hardcourt swing while last year he defeated no fewer than five top-25 players during it, including Fritz and Tommy Paul. Look out for him being under-estimated by the bookies.
Away from the Americans, it will be interesting to see how Gabriel Diallo performs, although I doubt he’ll be going under the layers’ radar. Put up as one to watch in my pre-season column, the Canadian has more than justified my faith, making the Madrid Masters quarter-finals and, more recently, capturing his first ATP title in Den Bosch. In quick conditions, such as those on offer in Cincinnati, he could trouble many.
Hardcourt Season 2025: Take on Medvedev
On the negative side, I feel Daniil Medvedev may be worth looking at in terms of taking on. The Russian has now gone more than two years without an ATP title and has won just a single Grand Slam match in 2025. He recently lost to Benjamin Bonzi in the first round of Wimbledon. Mentally he doesn’t look the strongest right now, although I suspect the bookies may be prepared to keep the faith with him heading into this period given his reputation as a hardcourt specialist – he’s a former US Open champion.
Futureproof: Hardcourt Season 2025
Perhaps a return to his favourite surface will spark a revival but I’ll be on the lookout for chances to oppose Medvedev. As ever, let’s finish with a quick review of players mentioned last time out.
Jacob Fearnley – Made his first ATP quarter-final at Queen’s Club during a decent but unspectacular grasscourt season.
Jordan Thompson – Struggled with injury on the grass but still managed to show his skills on the surface by making the last 16 of Wimbledon.
Mattia Bellucci – Was a bit of wildcard pick to shine on the grass but notched a notable win over seed Jiri Lehecka at Wimbledon.
Tomas Machac – Put up as a potential lay on grass, the Czech duly lost to world number 192 August Holmgren at Wimbledon.
Marin Cilic – An honourable mention to a player I put up as a potential Wimbledon dark horse. He exited in the last 16 but only after stunning Jack Draper at massive odds.
By Andy Schooler
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