Sports betting expert Andy Schooler brings you his Tennis Best Bets for the first round of this week’s ATP tournament in Hamburg. Read his exclusive preview for kwiff ahead of this week’s tennis action in Hamburg.
Tennis Best Bets: Huge ATP Hamburg 2025 Tips
Tennis Best Bets: Altmaier v Auger-Aliassime (Tue)
My best bet this week from the first-round coupon is Altmaier. The German arrives fresh off a run to the semi-finals of the Challenger Tour event in Turin last week where he toppled top seed Flavio Cobolli before losing to eventual champion Alexander Bublik. In contrast, Auger-Aliassime can’t buy a win on the clay. He’s a miserable 0-4 since moving onto this surface with even a drop down to Challenger level failing to end his losing streak.
The Canadian looks devoid of confidence right now and also withdrew from the recent Rome Masters citing a lower back injury. Facing Altmaier here hardly looks an ideal match for him to respond to that recent adversity. The German has won both of their previous meetings in straight sets, including one on the clay of Monte Carlo only last month. OK, FAA remains the higher-ranked player but taking odds-against about Altmaier here looks a decent play.
Tennis Best Bets: Perricard v Bublik
We’ve got two big servers here and while the slower clay conditions blunt that shot a tad, these two are still more than capable of banging down the aces. That’s exactly what Mpetshi Perricard was doing last week in Bordeaux where he won the Challenger Tour title – 63 aces were delivered in four matches, with the first serve dominant and the second serve holding up pretty well too. Overall this season on clay, the Frenchman has held serve in 88% of his service games but broken on 13% of the time.
Such numbers immediately make me think of tie-breaks and long sets. Sure enough, a look back to last week shows that seven of his last eight sets have gone over 10.5 games. That’s where the first-set games line is set for this one and I’ll happily play the overs. Bublik was also a Challenger title winner in Turin so arrives with confidence high and his serve should dominate too. With this being the pair’s first meeting, it may well take the majority of the first set for the pair to start getting a read on the other’s bombs and so going over 10.5 games should be the approach.
Tennis Best Bets: Zverev v Kovacevic (Mon)
I can’t resist siding with Kovacevic in some way here. The reason, almost entirely, is the fact that Zverev is only here as a last-minute replacement. Following a spate of withdrawals, the tournament was able to offer an extra wild card to a top-10 player and home favourite Zverev, the 2023 champion when the event was played in a July slot, has accepted.
This time, however, the tournament is being staged in the week before the French Open and that begs the question, does Zverev really want to be here very long? Having made the Munich final and the last eight in Rome, he’s not exactly short on match practice ahead of Roland Garros where he has a fine record and will be among the title contenders. I get the impression that Zverev is here to essentially help out one of his home tournaments and won’t be around long – he’ll want to be in Paris before the Hamburg final is played on Saturday, I’m sure.
Whether he bails in round one is open to question but Kovacevic did qualify impressively, losing his serve only twice in his two qualifiers. The American has shown an ability to compete with the best – in Montpellier earlier this year he beat the likes of Alexander Bublik and Andrey Rublev en route to the final – so he is no mug. I certainly feel he’s capable of taking advantage if Zverev isn’t at full throttle and a small bet on the underdog at 7.0 might just reward in the circumstances.
Tennis Best Bets: ATP Hamburg 2025
Altmaier to beat Auger-Aliassime @ 2.1 with kwiff
Over 10.5 games in first set of Perricard/Bublik @ 2.2 with kwiff
Kovacevic to beat Zverev @ 7.0 with kwiff
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