In his regular tennis column, Andy Schooler brings you his best first-round bets for the ATP Miami Open 2025, which starts on Wednesday. Read below for his exclusive insights and tips, including a huge 40/1 pick for Wednesday’s opening round of games.
ATP Miami Open 2025: Round 1 Best Bets
ATP Miami Open 2025: Bergs v Borges
I’ve mentioned Borges’ improvement on hardcourts on these pages already this season but Bergs is another on the up and he could be a spot of underdog value here. The Belgian has already reached an ATP final this year – in Auckland – while he also made the semis in Marseille.
And at both hardcourt tournaments, he beat Borges on route. While both matches were close, each going to a deciding set, the wins should give Bergs plenty of confidence coming into this one and I rate his chances better than the bookies.
ATP Miami Open 2025: Safiullin v Brooksby
Brooksby was a big breakthrough talent a few years ago before the wheels came off. A wrist injury required surgery, while three missed drugs tests saw him handed a suspension. He returned to action at the start of this season but his comeback kicked up a level in Indian Wells recently where he beat Benjamin Bonzi and Felix Auger-Aliassime before giving eventual champion Jack Draper a strong test in defeat. Prior to that, he took a set off Tommy Paul in Dallas.
Like many Americans, he’s tended to play his best tennis in his homeland and it’s notable that all three of his ATP finals have come in the US. Brooksby is an excellent retriever and that’s the sort of game which could thrive in Miami where the humidity tends to fluff up the balls and slow them down. Safiullin has struggled so far this season, going 4-7, and even a switch to the Challenger Tour last week failed to reap rewards with the Russian being defeated by wild card Colton Smith in Phoenix. Brooksby at 1.72 looks a bet here.
ATP Miami Open 2025: Fonseca v Tien
For those who like a real punt, consider getting involved in the first-set score market here. These two played twice at the NextGen ATP Finals in December, Fonseca winning both matches. However, it was the scorelines in those contests which caught the eye.
Fonseca’s big-hitting game was able to blast through Tien’s usually strong defence and in their round-robin clash he won the first eight games to open a two-set lead in the Fast4 format – they played first-to-four sets so Fonseca led 4-0 4-0 before Tien got on the board. In their final rematch, Fonseca again posted a love set.
Now, clearly he’s got to win six games to secure a set in Miami but they way he’s been striking the ball at times this season suggests another dominant display could occur. Fonseca to win the first set 6-0 is a whopping 41.0, although it may well be worth taking a saver on 6-1 at 11.0 – you’d be gutted if Tien was well beaten but did manage to win a game. A couple of fun bets to small stakes which might just reward in a big way.
ATP Miami Open 2025: R1 Best Bets
Zizou Bergs to beat Nuno Borges @ 2.0 with kwiff
Jenson Brooksby to beat Roman Safiullin @ 1.72 with kwiff
Joao Fonseca to win the 1st set 6-0 v Learner Tien @ 41.0 with kwiff
Joao Fonseca to win the 1st set 6-1 v Learner Tien @ 11.0 with kwiff
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